Netherlands · Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs Excelsior

Kick-off 19:00 · Fri, Oct 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Heerenveen 47.4% Draw 25.9% Excelsior 26.7%

Over 2.5 - 80% BTTS - 74%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

74%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Excelsior: 5 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.5%

Exact-score model probability

Heerenveen

L W D L D L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Excelsior

L D L D W W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 11:12 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Heerenveen 2wins ·1 draws ·Excelsior 2wins

Heerenveen 2-1 ExcelsiorMar 7, 2026

Heerenveen 2-1 ExcelsiorOct 4, 2025

Heerenveen 0-3 ExcelsiorJan 19, 2024

Heerenveen 0-3 ExcelsiorSep 23, 2023

Heerenveen 0-0 ExcelsiorMay 13, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Heerenveen win47.4%

Draw25.9%

Excelsior win26.7%

Over 1.5 goals82.9%

Over 2.5 goals80.4%

Over 3.5 goals37.6%

Both teams to score74.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Draw or Away (X2)79.6%

Draw No Bet - Away74.7%

Both Halves Over 0.568.6%

Goal in Both Halves68.6%

Away Win60.1%

Home or Draw (1X)39.9%

Draw No Bet - Home25.3%

Home Win20.4%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal10.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.1%

Over 1.5 Goals87.0%

Under 5.5 Goals85.0%

Under 4.5 Goals71.4%

Over 2.5 Goals69.0%

2-4 Goals58.4%

Under 3.5 Goals52.4%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.5%

Over 3.5 Goals47.6%

4+ Goals47.6%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.4%

Under 2.5 Goals31.0%

Over 4.5 Goals28.6%

1-2 Goals28.1%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals18.0%

Over 5.5 Goals15.0%

Under 1.5 Goals13.0%

Under 0.5 Goals2.9%

Exactly 0 Goals2.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.8%

Home Team to Score72.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)64.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)35.3%

Away Clean Sheet27.9%

Away Win to Nil25.1%

Home Clean Sheet10.2%

Home Win to Nil7.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.8%

Home Over 0.572.0%

Away Over 1.566.6%

Away Over 2.540.0%

Away 3+ Goals40.0%

Home Over 1.536.4%

Home Exactly 135.6%

Home Exactly 027.9%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 123.2%

Home Exactly 222.7%

Home Over 2.513.7%

Home 3+ Goals13.7%

Away Exactly 010.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home90.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)79.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away79.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home79.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)61.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home61.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)60.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)39.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home39.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away38.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.9%

Away to win by 121.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)20.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)20.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away20.4%

Away to win by 3+20.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.8%

Away to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.2%

Home to win by 112.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw11.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)9.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away9.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw5.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.5%

Home to win by 25.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away3.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.6%

Home to win by 3+2.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.9%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away1.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.4%

Away & Over 2.546.1%

Away & BTTS35.0%

Away & No BTTS25.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.522.7%

Draw & BTTS16.7%

Home & Over 2.514.4%

Away & Under 2.513.9%

Home & BTTS13.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.6%

Draw & Under 2.511.1%

Draw & Over 2.58.4%

BTTS & Under 2.58.3%

Home & No BTTS7.3%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.9%

HT Under 1.552.4%

HT Over 1.547.6%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

HT Away Win45.9%

HT/FT Away/Away39.4%

HT Draw33.9%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Both Teams Score28.1%

Equal Goals Each Half21.7%

HT Home Win20.2%

HT Under 0.520.1%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.8%

HT/FT Home/Home11.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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