Netherlands · Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Full time · 1:0

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

Heerenveen 40.8% Draw 25.6% NEC Nijmegen 33.6%

Over 2.5 - 87% BTTS - 71%

✓ Pick was correct (1:0)

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

87%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

71%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Heerenveen: 10 points versus 5 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Heerenveen

W W L W D L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 13:7 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.17

NEC Nijmegen

D D D D L D

Form 0-5-1 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Heerenveen 2wins ·1 draws ·NEC Nijmegen 2wins

Heerenveen 2-2 NEC NijmegenMar 22, 2026

Heerenveen 3-2 NEC NijmegenSep 21, 2025

Heerenveen 1-0 NEC NijmegenApr 27, 2025

Heerenveen 0-3 NEC NijmegenOct 19, 2024

Heerenveen 0-2 NEC NijmegenMar 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Heerenveen win40.8%

Draw25.6%

NEC Nijmegen win33.6%

Over 1.5 goals85.5%

Over 2.5 goals86.9%

Over 3.5 goals42.1%

Both teams to score70.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

92.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

85.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away

85.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.3%

Home or Draw (1X)82.5%

Draw No Bet - Home79.3%

Both Halves Over 0.576.5%

Goal in Both Halves76.5%

Home Win66.1%

Draw or Away (X2)33.7%

Draw No Bet - Away20.7%

Away Win17.2%

Draw16.5%

Exactly 1 Goal6.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.3%

Over 1.5 Goals92.0%

Over 2.5 Goals78.8%

Under 5.5 Goals75.4%

Over 3.5 Goals60.3%

4+ Goals60.3%

Under 4.5 Goals59.1%

2-4 Goals51.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals40.9%

Under 3.5 Goals39.7%

1-3 Goals37.9%

3-4 Goals37.9%

2-3 Goals31.7%

Over 5.5 Goals24.6%

Under 2.5 Goals21.2%

1-2 Goals19.4%

Exactly 3 Goals18.5%

Exactly 2 Goals13.2%

Under 1.5 Goals8.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.7%

Exactly 0 Goals1.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.6%

Away Team to Score75.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)70.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)29.2%

Home Clean Sheet24.3%

Home Win to Nil22.8%

Away Clean Sheet6.1%

Away Win to Nil4.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.6%

Home Over 1.576.5%

Away Over 0.575.5%

Home Over 2.552.7%

Home 3+ Goals52.7%

Away Over 1.541.2%

Away Exactly 134.3%

Away Exactly 024.3%

Away Exactly 224.2%

Home Exactly 223.9%

Home Exactly 117.1%

Away Over 2.516.9%

Away 3+ Goals16.9%

Home Exactly 06.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)72.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away72.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)66.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)53.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away53.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)46.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home46.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away33.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)27.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home27.7%

Home to win by 3+27.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.0%

Home to win by 120.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.4%

Home to win by 218.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)17.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.1%

Away to win by 110.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.4%

Away to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.565.0%

Home & Over 2.556.1%

Home & BTTS43.3%

Home & No BTTS22.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.515.1%

Draw & BTTS15.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.9%

Away & Over 2.513.6%

Away & BTTS12.6%

Home & Under 2.510.0%

Draw & Over 2.59.1%

Draw & Under 2.57.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.9%

Away & No BTTS4.6%

Away & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.584.9%

HT Over 1.556.4%

HT Home Win51.5%

2nd Half More Goals48.0%

HT/FT Home/Home45.3%

HT Under 1.543.6%

HT Both Teams Score33.7%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw29.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.8%

HT Away Win18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.5%

HT Under 0.515.1%

HT/FT Away/Away9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.6%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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