Netherlands · Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle

Kick-off 20:00 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Heerenveen 61.3% Draw 21.9% PEC Zwolle 16.8%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.9%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Heerenveen: 8 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Heerenveen 2 wins, 2 draws, PEC Zwolle 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.9%

Exact-score model probability

Heerenveen

D W L D L W

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

PEC Zwolle

L L L L W L

Form 1-0-5 Goals 5:16 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2.67

Head to head · last 5

Heerenveen 2wins ·2 draws ·PEC Zwolle 1wins

Heerenveen 4-2 PEC ZwolleFeb 15, 2026

Heerenveen 1-2 PEC ZwolleNov 28, 2025

Heerenveen 1-1 PEC ZwolleFeb 16, 2025

Heerenveen 1-1 PEC ZwolleOct 6, 2024

Heerenveen 2-0 PEC ZwolleMar 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Heerenveen win61.3%

Draw21.9%

PEC Zwolle win16.8%

Over 1.5 goals84.9%

Over 2.5 goals89.8%

Over 3.5 goals41.5%

Both teams to score57.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

Home or Away (12)

89.0%

HT Over 0.5

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home92.6%

Home or Draw (1X)92.3%

Home or Away (12)89.0%

Home Win82.4%

Both Halves Over 0.580.4%

Goal in Both Halves80.4%

Draw or Away (X2)16.5%

Draw9.9%

Draw No Bet - Away7.4%

Away Win6.6%

Exactly 1 Goal4.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.9%

Over 1.5 Goals93.2%

Over 2.5 Goals82.6%

Under 5.5 Goals69.8%

Over 3.5 Goals66.2%

4+ Goals66.2%

Under 4.5 Goals52.6%

Total Goals Even49.5%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Over 4.5 Goals47.4%

2-4 Goals45.8%

3-4 Goals35.1%

Under 3.5 Goals33.8%

1-3 Goals31.7%

Over 5.5 Goals30.2%

2-3 Goals27.0%

Under 2.5 Goals17.4%

Exactly 3 Goals16.3%

1-2 Goals15.3%

Exactly 2 Goals10.7%

Under 1.5 Goals6.8%

Under 0.5 Goals2.1%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score63.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)61.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)38.4%

Home Clean Sheet35.4%

Home Win to Nil34.4%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.0%

Home Over 2.568.0%

Home 3+ Goals68.0%

Away Over 0.563.4%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 035.4%

Away Over 1.527.1%

Away Exactly 218.7%

Home Exactly 218.0%

Home Exactly 110.1%

Away Over 2.58.4%

Away 3+ Goals8.4%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away82.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)82.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)68.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away68.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)66.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home66.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)47.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home47.8%

Home to win by 3+47.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)32.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away32.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.9%

Home to win by 218.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)16.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away16.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 115.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.5%

Away to win by 14.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.6%

Away to win by 21.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.5%

Away to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.4%

BTTS & Over 2.557.9%

Home & BTTS48.0%

Home & No BTTS34.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.524.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.6%

Home & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & BTTS8.8%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Away & Over 2.55.1%

Away & BTTS4.8%

Draw & Under 2.54.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.3%

HT Home Win65.8%

HT/FT Home/Home62.5%

HT Over 1.561.2%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.538.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score29.5%

HT Draw23.9%

Equal Goals Each Half18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.9%

HT Under 0.512.7%

HT Away Win10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Away/Away3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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