Netherlands · Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs Telstar

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Heerenveen 49.9% Draw 25.2% Telstar 24.9%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

75%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 8.5%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Telstar: 5 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.5%

Exact-score model probability

Heerenveen

L D L D W L

Form 1-2-3 Goals 9:12 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 2

Telstar

L D L L W W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 2

Heerenveen 2wins ·0 draws ·Telstar 0wins

Heerenveen 3-0 TelstarMar 14, 2026

Heerenveen 3-2 TelstarOct 19, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Heerenveen win49.9%

Draw25.2%

Telstar win24.9%

Over 1.5 goals82.5%

Over 2.5 goals76.2%

Over 3.5 goals37.2%

Both teams to score75.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

91.4%

Home Over 0.5

91.4%

Over 1.5 Goals

90.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)81.1%

Home or Draw (1X)76.8%

Both Halves Over 0.574.3%

Goal in Both Halves74.3%

Draw No Bet - Home71.5%

Home Win57.9%

Draw or Away (X2)41.9%

Draw No Bet - Away28.5%

Away Win23.1%

Draw18.8%

Exactly 1 Goal7.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals90.8%

Under 5.5 Goals78.6%

Over 2.5 Goals76.1%

Under 4.5 Goals62.9%

Over 3.5 Goals56.6%

4+ Goals56.6%

2-4 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals43.4%

1-3 Goals41.5%

3-4 Goals39.1%

Over 4.5 Goals37.1%

2-3 Goals34.2%

Under 2.5 Goals23.9%

1-2 Goals21.9%

Over 5.5 Goals21.4%

Exactly 3 Goals19.5%

Exactly 2 Goals14.6%

Under 1.5 Goals9.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.4%

Away Team to Score78.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.3%

Home Clean Sheet21.5%

Home Win to Nil19.7%

Away Clean Sheet8.5%

Away Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.4%

Away Over 0.578.4%

Home Over 1.570.5%

Away Over 1.545.4%

Home Over 2.544.7%

Home 3+ Goals44.7%

Away Exactly 133.0%

Home Exactly 225.8%

Away Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 021.5%

Home Exactly 120.9%

Away Over 2.520.0%

Away 3+ Goals20.0%

Home Exactly 08.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away90.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away79.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)57.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)41.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away41.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)20.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home20.6%

Home to win by 3+20.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.5%

Home to win by 120.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 216.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.8%

Away to win by 112.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)10.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away10.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home9.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 26.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.8%

Away to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.564.8%

Home & Over 2.547.9%

Home & BTTS38.3%

Home & No BTTS19.7%

Away & Over 2.518.2%

Draw & BTTS17.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.516.8%

Away & BTTS16.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

Home & Under 2.510.1%

Draw & Over 2.510.1%

Draw & Under 2.58.7%

BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Away & No BTTS6.7%

Away & Under 2.55.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.583.5%

HT Over 1.553.8%

2nd Half More Goals47.5%

HT Under 1.546.2%

HT Home Win45.4%

HT/FT Home/Home38.2%

HT Both Teams Score33.5%

1st Half More Goals32.2%

HT Draw31.8%

HT Away Win22.7%

Equal Goals Each Half20.3%

HT Under 0.516.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT/FT Away/Away13.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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