Netherlands · Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs Twente

Kick-off 15:45 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Heerenveen 32.8% Draw 27.1% Twente 40.2%

Over 2.5 - 95% BTTS - 82%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 53%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 6%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Twente: 7 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

53%

Market does not fully agree

Heerenveen

L D L W W L

Form 2-1-3 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Twente

W D L L W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 16:11 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Heerenveen 0wins ·2 draws ·Twente 3wins

Heerenveen 0-5 TwenteFeb 7, 2026

Heerenveen 1-2 TwenteAug 24, 2025

Heerenveen 3-3 TwenteFeb 9, 2025

Heerenveen 0-2 TwenteSep 17, 2024

Heerenveen 3-3 TwenteApr 3, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Heerenveen win32.8%

Draw27.1%

Twente win40.2%

Over 1.5 goals82.4%

Over 2.5 goals94.6%

Over 3.5 goals36.4%

Both teams to score81.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.8%

HT Over 0.5

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.5%

Goal in Both Halves86.5%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home or Draw (1X)77.4%

Draw No Bet - Home74.0%

Home Win62.0%

Draw or Away (X2)37.2%

Draw No Bet - Away26.0%

Away Win21.8%

Draw15.4%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals96.3%

Over 2.5 Goals89.7%

Over 3.5 Goals77.8%

4+ Goals77.8%

Over 4.5 Goals61.8%

Under 5.5 Goals55.5%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Over 5.5 Goals44.5%

Under 4.5 Goals38.2%

2-4 Goals34.5%

3-4 Goals27.9%

Under 3.5 Goals22.2%

1-3 Goals20.9%

2-3 Goals18.5%

Exactly 3 Goals11.9%

Under 2.5 Goals10.3%

1-2 Goals9.1%

Exactly 2 Goals6.6%

Under 1.5 Goals3.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score86.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)16.5%

Home Clean Sheet12.6%

Home Win to Nil12.2%

Away Clean Sheet3.6%

Away Win to Nil3.1%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Away Over 0.586.6%

Home Over 1.583.8%

Home Over 2.564.0%

Home 3+ Goals64.0%

Away Over 1.560.6%

Away Over 2.533.7%

Away 3+ Goals33.7%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 126.0%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Exactly 012.6%

Home Exactly 111.9%

Home Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)83.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away83.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home77.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)71.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away71.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)62.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)54.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away54.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home44.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)37.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away37.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)28.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home28.1%

Home to win by 3+28.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.6%

Home to win by 117.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home15.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw10.9%

Away to win by 110.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.3%

Away to win by 26.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.7%

Away to win by 3+4.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.4%

Home & Over 2.558.0%

Home & BTTS49.9%

Away & Over 2.519.9%

Away & BTTS18.7%

Draw & BTTS14.9%

Home & No BTTS12.2%

Draw & Over 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Home & Under 2.54.0%

Draw & Under 2.53.6%

Away & No BTTS3.1%

BTTS & Under 2.53.1%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.2%

HT Over 1.569.8%

HT Home Win50.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT Both Teams Score47.0%

HT/FT Home/Home43.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.2%

HT Draw26.1%

HT Away Win23.3%

Equal Goals Each Half17.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.0%

HT/FT Away/Away13.0%

HT Under 0.58.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.0%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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