Germany · 2. Bundesliga

Hertha BSC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Kick-off 12:30 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Hertha BSC 45.9% Draw 20.6% SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33.5%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 81%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

81%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Hertha BSC: 9 points versus 7 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.93 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Hertha BSC

W W L W L

Form 3-0-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 1.8

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

L L D W L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 1

Hertha BSC 1wins ·0 draws ·SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0wins

Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther FürthMay 10, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hertha BSC win45.9%

Draw20.6%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win33.5%

Over 1.5 goals94.7%

Over 2.5 goals82.8%

Over 3.5 goals66.0%

Both teams to score80.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.4%

Home Team to Score

91.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.7%

Both Halves Over 0.579.7%

Goal in Both Halves79.7%

Home or Draw (1X)65.7%

Draw No Bet - Home57.6%

Draw or Away (X2)53.4%

Home Win46.5%

Draw No Bet - Away42.4%

Away Win34.2%

Draw19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals93.8%

Over 2.5 Goals82.7%

Under 5.5 Goals70.1%

Over 3.5 Goals65.9%

4+ Goals65.9%

Under 4.5 Goals53.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals47.0%

2-4 Goals46.9%

3-4 Goals35.7%

Under 3.5 Goals34.1%

1-3 Goals32.9%

Over 5.5 Goals29.9%

2-3 Goals27.9%

Under 2.5 Goals17.3%

Exactly 3 Goals16.8%

1-2 Goals16.1%

Exactly 2 Goals11.1%

Under 1.5 Goals6.2%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score91.1%

Away Team to Score87.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.2%

Home Clean Sheet12.4%

Home Win to Nil11.3%

Away Clean Sheet8.8%

Away Win to Nil7.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.591.1%

Away Over 0.587.5%

Home Over 1.569.7%

Away Over 1.561.6%

Home Over 2.543.7%

Home 3+ Goals43.7%

Away Over 2.534.6%

Away 3+ Goals34.6%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 125.9%

Home Exactly 121.4%

Away Exactly 012.4%

Home Exactly 08.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away53.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)46.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.2%

Home to win by 118.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.6%

Away to win by 115.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.7%

Home to win by 3+14.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw13.6%

Home to win by 213.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.0%

Away to win by 210.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.5%

Away to win by 3+8.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.574.2%

Home & Over 2.540.6%

Home & BTTS35.2%

Away & Over 2.529.5%

Away & BTTS26.5%

Draw & BTTS18.1%

Draw & Over 2.512.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.6%

Home & No BTTS11.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.5%

Away & No BTTS7.7%

Draw & Under 2.56.6%

Home & Under 2.55.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.5%

Away & Under 2.54.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.9%

HT Over 1.560.3%

2nd Half More Goals48.7%

HT Both Teams Score40.5%

HT Under 1.539.7%

HT Home Win38.8%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Away Win30.8%

HT Draw30.4%

HT/FT Home/Home29.8%

HT/FT Away/Away21.0%

Equal Goals Each Half19.0%

HT Under 0.513.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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