Scotland · Premiership

Hibernian vs Falkirk

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

61% confidence

Hibernian 60.6% Draw 21.3% Falkirk 18.1%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 77%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

82%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

79%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Hibernian: 11 points versus 1 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Hibernian 2 wins, 1 draws, Falkirk 1 wins in the last 4 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.2%

Exact-score model probability

Hibernian

L W D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Falkirk

L D L L L L

Form 0-1-5 Goals 4:15 Scored/game 0.67 Conceded/game 2.5

Head to head · last 4

Hibernian 2wins ·1 draws ·Falkirk 1wins

Hibernian 3-1 FalkirkMay 9, 2026

Hibernian 1-4 FalkirkJan 24, 2026

Hibernian 3-0 FalkirkDec 6, 2025

Hibernian 2-2 FalkirkSep 23, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hibernian win60.6%

Draw21.3%

Falkirk win18.1%

Over 1.5 goals79.3%

Over 2.5 goals56.5%

Over 3.5 goals34.1%

Both teams to score76.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

91.2%

HT Over 0.5

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.5%

Home or Draw (1X)82.7%

Both Halves Over 0.581.9%

Goal in Both Halves81.9%

Draw No Bet - Home80.1%

Home Win67.7%

Draw or Away (X2)31.8%

Draw No Bet - Away19.9%

Away Win16.8%

Draw15.0%

Exactly 1 Goal4.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.6%

Over 1.5 Goals94.6%

Over 2.5 Goals84.9%

Over 3.5 Goals69.5%

4+ Goals69.5%

Under 5.5 Goals66.2%

Over 4.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals48.8%

2-4 Goals43.3%

Over 5.5 Goals33.8%

3-4 Goals33.7%

Under 3.5 Goals30.5%

1-3 Goals29.1%

2-3 Goals25.0%

Exactly 3 Goals15.4%

Under 2.5 Goals15.1%

1-2 Goals13.7%

Exactly 2 Goals9.7%

Under 1.5 Goals5.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score79.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)76.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)23.8%

Home Clean Sheet19.9%

Home Win to Nil19.0%

Away Clean Sheet4.3%

Away Win to Nil3.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Home Over 1.581.8%

Away Over 0.579.6%

Home Over 2.560.5%

Home 3+ Goals60.5%

Away Over 1.547.6%

Away Exactly 132.0%

Away Exactly 225.8%

Away Over 2.521.8%

Away 3+ Goals21.8%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Away Exactly 019.9%

Home Exactly 113.5%

Home Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away91.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)68.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away68.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)50.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away50.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away31.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)31.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home31.3%

Home to win by 3+31.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.5%

Home to win by 118.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.9%

Home to win by 217.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.4%

Away to win by 19.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home8.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.7%

Away to win by 3+2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.571.9%

Home & Over 2.560.7%

Home & BTTS48.7%

Home & No BTTS19.0%

Away & Over 2.514.3%

Draw & BTTS14.2%

Away & BTTS13.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.8%

Home & Under 2.56.9%

Draw & Under 2.55.2%

BTTS & Under 2.54.3%

Away & No BTTS3.4%

Away & Under 2.52.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.3%

HT Over 1.563.2%

HT Home Win53.7%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT/FT Home/Home47.4%

HT Both Teams Score39.1%

HT Under 1.536.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.2%

HT Away Win19.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.6%

HT Under 0.511.7%

HT/FT Away/Away9.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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