Scotland · Premiership

Hibernian vs Kilmarnock

Kick-off 19:45 · Tue, Sep 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Hibernian 66.0% Draw 18.8% Kilmarnock 15.1%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

84%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 6.8%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Hibernian: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.8%

Exact-score model probability

Hibernian

L W D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Kilmarnock

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Hibernian 3wins ·2 draws ·Kilmarnock 0wins

Hibernian 3-0 KilmarnockApr 4, 2026

Hibernian 3-1 KilmarnockJan 3, 2026

Hibernian 2-2 KilmarnockAug 10, 2025

Hibernian 1-1 KilmarnockMar 15, 2025

Hibernian 1-0 KilmarnockDec 29, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hibernian win66.0%

Draw18.8%

Kilmarnock win15.1%

Over 1.5 goals84.4%

Over 2.5 goals64.4%

Over 3.5 goals42.3%

Both teams to score89.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.6%

Away Team to Score

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.581.4%

Goal in Both Halves81.4%

Home or Away (12)81.2%

Home or Draw (1X)67.1%

Draw No Bet - Home59.7%

Draw or Away (X2)51.3%

Home Win48.5%

Draw No Bet - Away40.3%

Away Win32.7%

Draw18.6%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals94.7%

Over 2.5 Goals84.7%

Over 3.5 Goals69.0%

4+ Goals69.0%

Under 5.5 Goals66.8%

Over 4.5 Goals50.6%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Under 4.5 Goals49.4%

2-4 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals34.1%

Over 5.5 Goals33.2%

Under 3.5 Goals31.0%

1-3 Goals29.9%

2-3 Goals25.7%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

Under 2.5 Goals15.3%

1-2 Goals14.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.0%

Under 1.5 Goals5.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score92.2%

Away Team to Score88.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.7%

Home Clean Sheet11.8%

Home Win to Nil10.9%

Away Clean Sheet7.6%

Away Win to Nil6.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.592.2%

Away Over 0.588.0%

Home Over 1.572.7%

Away Over 1.562.7%

Home Over 2.547.5%

Home 3+ Goals47.5%

Away Over 2.535.8%

Away 3+ Goals35.8%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 225.2%

Away Exactly 125.2%

Home Exactly 119.6%

Away Exactly 011.8%

Home Exactly 07.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away96.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)83.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away83.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home82.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)69.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away69.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)67.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home67.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)32.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 118.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)17.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away17.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home16.4%

Home to win by 3+16.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 115.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 214.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.6%

Away to win by 29.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.2%

Away to win by 3+8.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)3.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away3.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.3%

Home & Over 2.543.2%

Home & BTTS37.6%

Away & Over 2.528.8%

Away & BTTS26.0%

Draw & BTTS17.7%

Draw & Over 2.512.7%

Home & No BTTS10.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.510.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Away & No BTTS6.7%

Draw & Under 2.55.8%

Home & Under 2.55.3%

BTTS & Under 2.54.9%

Away & Under 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.0%

HT Over 1.562.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Both Teams Score42.4%

HT Home Win40.3%

HT Under 1.537.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT/FT Home/Home31.4%

HT Away Win30.1%

HT Draw29.6%

HT/FT Away/Away20.1%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.6%

HT Under 0.512.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Away/Home4.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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