UEFA Europa Conference League

HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Home Win

92% confidence

HJK Helsinki 92.0% Draw 6.0% Motherwell 2.0%

Over 2.5 - 84% BTTS - 28%

✗ Pick missed (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

Strong home form

⚠️ AIs disagree

68%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring rate

82%

Home Clean Sheet

Defensive strength

70%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

HJK Helsinki's strong home form and high scoring rate make them favorites. Motherwell's inconsistent form and HJK's defensive strength are key factors. Amara Nallo's loan addition boosts HJK's defense. HJK Helsinki's home advantage and Motherwell's away struggles are significant.

💡

Top Tip

HJK Helsinki to win with a strong home performance

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 13.6%, based on the goal model.

Strong home form

Numbers behind this Home Win

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

13.6%

Exact-score model probability

HJK Helsinki

W W

Form 2-0-0 Goals 8:0 Scored/game 4 Conceded/game 0

Motherwell

W W W W L D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 11:5 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.83

📈 Probability Breakdown

HJK Helsinki win92.0%

Draw6.0%

Motherwell win2.0%

Over 1.5 goals95.3%

Over 2.5 goals83.8%

Over 3.5 goals69.9%

Both teams to score28.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

91.3%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

HT Over 0.5

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home99.4%

Home or Draw (1X)95.4%

Home or Away (12)93.4%

Home Win92.8%

Both Halves Over 0.582.5%

Goal in Both Halves82.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.8%

Draw or Away (X2)3.1%

Draw2.5%

Away Win0.6%

Draw No Bet - Away0.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.2%

Over 1.5 Goals91.3%

Over 2.5 Goals82.1%

Under 5.5 Goals68.5%

Over 3.5 Goals67.1%

4+ Goals67.1%

Under 4.5 Goals51.0%

Over 4.5 Goals49.0%

Total Goals Even48.4%

Total Goals Odd47.6%

2-4 Goals42.3%

3-4 Goals33.1%

Under 3.5 Goals32.9%

Over 5.5 Goals31.5%

1-3 Goals28.1%

2-3 Goals24.2%

Under 2.5 Goals17.9%

Exactly 3 Goals15.0%

1-2 Goals13.1%

Exactly 2 Goals9.3%

Under 1.5 Goals8.7%

Under 0.5 Goals4.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)72.9%

Home Clean Sheet68.6%

Home Win to Nil67.8%

Away Team to Score27.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)27.1%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Exactly 068.6%

Away Over 0.527.4%

Away Exactly 123.0%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Away Over 1.54.3%

Away Exactly 23.9%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Away Over 2.50.5%

Away 3+ Goals0.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home95.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)92.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)85.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home85.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)74.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)72.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home72.9%

Home to win by 3+72.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)58.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away58.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)55.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home55.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)40.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away40.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)37.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home37.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away23.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)21.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home21.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw18.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw15.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.9%

Home to win by 212.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)10.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away10.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.0%

Home to win by 17.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away3.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw0.5%

Away to win by 10.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 20.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Away to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.2%

Home & No BTTS67.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.556.2%

BTTS & Over 2.525.9%

Home & BTTS25.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Home & Under 2.511.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.0%

Draw & BTTS1.7%

BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Draw & Over 2.50.5%

Away & Over 2.50.3%

Away & Under 2.50.3%

Away & BTTS0.3%

Away & No BTTS0.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.6%

HT Home Win82.7%

HT/FT Home/Home82.1%

HT Over 1.563.9%

2nd Half More Goals49.2%

HT Under 1.536.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

Equal Goals Each Half18.3%

HT Draw15.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.2%

HT Both Teams Score12.2%

HT Under 0.511.4%

HT Away Win2.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw0.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw0.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away0.3%

HT/FT Away/Away0.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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