UEFA Europa Conference League

HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

56% confidence

HNK Hajduk Split 55.8% Draw 17.2% Ajax 27.0%

Over 2.5 - 91% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Ajax: 10 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.9%

Exact-score model probability

HNK Hajduk Split

D W W L W L

Form 3-1-2 Goals 14:8 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1.33

Ajax

D D W W L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 18:8 Scored/game 3 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

HNK Hajduk Split win55.8%

Draw17.2%

Ajax win27.0%

Over 1.5 goals97.7%

Over 2.5 goals91.1%

Over 3.5 goals79.7%

Both teams to score86.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

90.5%

Away Team to Score

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.587.1%

Goal in Both Halves87.1%

Home or Away (12)83.0%

Home or Draw (1X)72.2%

Draw No Bet - Home67.3%

Home Win55.9%

Draw or Away (X2)43.5%

Draw No Bet - Away32.7%

Away Win27.2%

Draw16.3%

Exactly 1 Goal2.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals99.0%

Over 1.5 Goals96.7%

Over 2.5 Goals90.5%

Over 3.5 Goals79.2%

4+ Goals79.2%

Over 4.5 Goals63.6%

Under 5.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Over 5.5 Goals46.4%

Under 4.5 Goals36.4%

2-4 Goals33.1%

3-4 Goals26.9%

Under 3.5 Goals20.8%

1-3 Goals19.8%

2-3 Goals17.5%

Exactly 3 Goals11.3%

Under 2.5 Goals9.5%

1-2 Goals8.4%

Exactly 2 Goals6.2%

Under 1.5 Goals3.3%

Under 0.5 Goals1.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.3%

Away Team to Score89.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)85.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)14.3%

Home Clean Sheet10.0%

Home Win to Nil9.6%

Away Clean Sheet4.1%

Away Win to Nil3.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.3%

Away Over 0.589.4%

Home Over 1.582.2%

Away Over 1.566.5%

Home Over 2.561.3%

Home 3+ Goals61.3%

Away Over 2.540.1%

Away 3+ Goals40.1%

Away Exactly 226.4%

Away Exactly 122.9%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Home Exactly 113.1%

Away Exactly 010.0%

Home Exactly 04.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)76.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away76.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)72.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home72.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)60.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away60.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)55.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)43.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away43.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)38.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home38.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)27.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)23.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home23.4%

Home to win by 3+23.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)14.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away14.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.5%

Away to win by 112.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 27.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.8%

Away to win by 3+6.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw6.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.7%

Home & Over 2.552.5%

Home & BTTS46.3%

Away & Over 2.525.1%

Away & BTTS23.5%

Draw & BTTS15.9%

Draw & Over 2.512.9%

Home & No BTTS9.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.8%

Away & No BTTS3.7%

Home & Under 2.53.4%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Away & Under 2.52.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.6%

HT Over 1.570.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

HT Both Teams Score49.2%

HT Home Win46.3%

HT/FT Home/Home37.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.529.3%

HT Away Win27.2%

HT Draw26.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Away/Away16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.0%

HT Under 0.58.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Away/Home5.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.3%

Corners (12)

Away Most Corners87.3%

Away Over 4.5 Corners80.3%

Under 11.5 Corners74.8%

Under 10.5 Corners64.0%

Over 8.5 Corners61.3%

Under 9.5 Corners51.6%

Over 9.5 Corners48.4%

Under 8.5 Corners38.7%

Over 10.5 Corners36.0%

Over 11.5 Corners25.2%

Home Over 4.5 Corners15.1%

Home Most Corners6.9%

Cards (9)

Under 5.5 Cards81.1%

Over 2.5 Cards73.6%

Under 4.5 Cards66.1%

Over 3.5 Cards53.3%

Under 3.5 Cards46.7%

Over 4.5 Cards33.9%

Under 2.5 Cards26.4%

Over 5.5 Cards18.9%

Over 0.5 Red Cards15.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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