UEFA Europa Conference League

HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

41% confidence

HNK Hajduk Split 23.5% Draw 36.0% Raków Częstochowa 40.5%

Over 2.5 - 26% BTTS - 35%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 2.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-1 at 17.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to HNK Hajduk Split: 12 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

17.8%

Exact-score model probability

HNK Hajduk Split

W W L W L W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

Raków Częstochowa

W D W W

Form 3-1-0 Goals 8:1 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.25

📈 Probability Breakdown

HNK Hajduk Split win23.5%

Draw36.0%

Raków Częstochowa win40.5%

Over 1.5 goals54.4%

Over 2.5 goals26.1%

Over 3.5 goals10.4%

Both teams to score35.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

89.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

83.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

83.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)74.9%

Home or Away (12)67.3%

Draw No Bet - Away62.7%

Home or Draw (1X)57.8%

Away Win42.2%

Draw No Bet - Home37.3%

Both Halves Over 0.534.1%

Goal in Both Halves34.1%

Draw32.7%

Exactly 1 Goal30.2%

Home Win25.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.0%

Under 4.5 Goals96.6%

Under 3.5 Goals89.6%

Over 0.5 Goals82.9%

Under 2.5 Goals73.9%

1-3 Goals72.6%

1-2 Goals56.9%

Over 1.5 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even51.5%

2-4 Goals49.3%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Under 1.5 Goals47.2%

2-3 Goals42.4%

Exactly 2 Goals26.7%

Over 2.5 Goals26.1%

3-4 Goals22.7%

Under 0.5 Goals17.1%

Exactly 0 Goals17.1%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

Over 3.5 Goals10.4%

4+ Goals10.4%

Over 4.5 Goals3.4%

Over 5.5 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)66.6%

Away Team to Score64.7%

Home Team to Score51.7%

Away Clean Sheet48.3%

Home Clean Sheet35.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)33.4%

Away Win to Nil31.2%

Home Win to Nil18.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.564.7%

Home Over 0.551.7%

Home Exactly 048.3%

Away Exactly 136.8%

Away Exactly 035.3%

Home Exactly 135.2%

Away Over 1.527.9%

Away Exactly 219.1%

Home Over 1.516.6%

Home Exactly 212.8%

Away Over 2.58.8%

Away 3+ Goals8.8%

Home Over 2.53.8%

Home 3+ Goals3.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)83.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home83.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)74.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away74.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home57.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)42.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw25.4%

Away to win by 125.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.8%

Home to win by 117.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)16.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away16.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.8%

Away to win by 211.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.8%

Home to win by 25.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.1%

Away to win by 3+5.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.561.0%

Away & No BTTS31.2%

Draw & Under 2.530.0%

Away & Under 2.527.0%

BTTS & Over 2.520.5%

Home & No BTTS18.3%

Home & Under 2.516.9%

Draw & BTTS15.6%

Away & Over 2.515.2%

BTTS & Under 2.512.9%

Away & BTTS11.0%

Home & Over 2.58.2%

Home & BTTS6.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.6%

Draw & Over 2.52.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.581.0%

HT Over 0.554.9%

HT Draw52.3%

HT Under 0.545.1%

2nd Half More Goals38.3%

Equal Goals Each Half33.1%

HT Away Win28.9%

1st Half More Goals28.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw24.6%

HT/FT Away/Away24.0%

HT Over 1.519.0%

HT Home Win18.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.9%

HT/FT Home/Home13.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.8%

HT Both Teams Score10.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.0%

HT/FT Home/Away1.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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