Germany · 2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld

Kick-off 13:00 · Sat, Nov 7

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Holstein Kiel 66.3% Draw 14.9% Arminia Bielefeld 18.8%

Over 2.5 - 92% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

86%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

85%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-2 at 5.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Arminia Bielefeld: 5 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.33 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.7%

Exact-score model probability

Holstein Kiel

L D D L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Arminia Bielefeld

D D W L W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 12:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.17

📈 Probability Breakdown

Holstein Kiel win66.3%

Draw14.9%

Arminia Bielefeld win18.8%

Over 1.5 goals98.1%

Over 2.5 goals92.3%

Over 3.5 goals82.0%

Both teams to score85.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.588.4%

Goal in Both Halves88.4%

Home or Away (12)84.7%

Home or Draw (1X)79.8%

Draw No Bet - Home77.7%

Home Win65.8%

Draw or Away (X2)33.0%

Draw No Bet - Away22.3%

Away Win18.9%

Draw14.0%

Exactly 1 Goal1.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals96.5%

Over 2.5 Goals91.2%

Over 3.5 Goals80.9%

4+ Goals80.9%

Over 4.5 Goals66.3%

Under 5.5 Goals50.4%

Over 5.5 Goals49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Under 4.5 Goals33.7%

2-4 Goals30.2%

3-4 Goals24.8%

Under 3.5 Goals19.1%

1-3 Goals17.4%

2-3 Goals15.6%

Exactly 3 Goals10.2%

Under 2.5 Goals8.8%

1-2 Goals7.2%

Exactly 2 Goals5.4%

Under 1.5 Goals3.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score86.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.9%

Home Clean Sheet12.3%

Home Win to Nil12.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.6%

Away Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.6%

Away Over 0.586.4%

Home Over 2.569.2%

Home 3+ Goals69.2%

Away Over 1.560.7%

Away Over 2.534.0%

Away 3+ Goals34.0%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Away Exactly 125.7%

Home Exactly 217.4%

Away Exactly 012.3%

Home Exactly 19.5%

Home Exactly 02.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)89.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away89.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)79.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home79.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)79.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away79.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)65.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)49.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away49.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)49.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home49.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)33.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away33.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)32.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home32.5%

Home to win by 3+32.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home19.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)18.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.8%

Home to win by 116.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.5%

Home to win by 216.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw13.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home9.6%

Away to win by 19.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 25.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.0%

Away to win by 3+4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.6%

Home & Over 2.562.4%

Home & BTTS53.8%

Away & Over 2.517.5%

Away & BTTS16.6%

Draw & BTTS13.7%

Home & No BTTS12.0%

Draw & Over 2.511.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Home & Under 2.53.4%

Draw & Under 2.52.8%

BTTS & Under 2.52.5%

Away & No BTTS2.3%

Away & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.4%

HT Over 1.572.8%

HT Home Win53.9%

2nd Half More Goals50.9%

HT Both Teams Score49.0%

HT/FT Home/Home47.0%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.527.2%

HT Draw24.6%

HT Away Win21.5%

Equal Goals Each Half16.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Away/Away11.2%

HT Under 0.57.6%

HT/FT Away/Home5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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