Germany · 2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli

Kick-off 17:30 · Fri, Aug 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Holstein Kiel 82.7% Draw 10.7% FC St. Pauli 6.6%

Over 2.5 - 86% BTTS - 67%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-1 at 7.7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Holstein Kiel: 4 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Holstein Kiel 0 wins, 0 draws, FC St. Pauli 2 wins in the last 2 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.7%

Exact-score model probability

Holstein Kiel

D L L W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 7:12 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2

FC St. Pauli

D L L L L D

Form 0-2-4 Goals 5:11 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 2

Holstein Kiel 0wins ·0 draws ·FC St. Pauli 2wins

Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC St. PauliApr 12, 2025

Holstein Kiel 1-3 FC St. PauliNov 29, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Holstein Kiel win82.7%

Draw10.7%

FC St. Pauli win6.6%

Over 1.5 goals95.8%

Over 2.5 goals86.0%

Over 3.5 goals70.9%

Both teams to score66.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

87.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)82.6%

Home or Draw (1X)78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.578.3%

Goal in Both Halves78.3%

Draw No Bet - Home74.8%

Home Win61.7%

Draw or Away (X2)38.1%

Draw No Bet - Away25.2%

Away Win20.8%

Draw17.2%

Exactly 1 Goal5.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.0%

Over 2.5 Goals81.0%

Under 5.5 Goals72.6%

Over 3.5 Goals63.4%

4+ Goals63.4%

Under 4.5 Goals55.8%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

2-4 Goals48.8%

Over 4.5 Goals44.2%

3-4 Goals36.8%

Under 3.5 Goals36.6%

1-3 Goals35.1%

2-3 Goals29.6%

Over 5.5 Goals27.4%

Under 2.5 Goals19.0%

Exactly 3 Goals17.6%

1-2 Goals17.5%

Exactly 2 Goals12.0%

Under 1.5 Goals7.0%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.5%

Away Team to Score79.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.2%

Home Clean Sheet19.9%

Home Win to Nil18.7%

Away Clean Sheet6.3%

Away Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.5%

Away Over 0.579.8%

Home Over 1.576.1%

Home Over 2.552.0%

Home 3+ Goals52.0%

Away Over 1.547.7%

Away Exactly 132.1%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Home Exactly 224.1%

Away Over 2.521.9%

Away 3+ Goals21.9%

Away Exactly 019.9%

Home Exactly 117.4%

Home Exactly 06.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)97.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away87.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home78.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)75.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away75.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)61.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)38.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away38.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)24.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home24.7%

Home to win by 3+24.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)20.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.7%

Home to win by 119.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 217.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home12.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.4%

Away to win by 111.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.9%

Away to win by 25.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.5%

Away to win by 3+3.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.2%

Home & Over 2.553.4%

Home & BTTS43.1%

Home & No BTTS18.7%

Away & Over 2.517.2%

Draw & BTTS16.0%

Away & BTTS15.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.513.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

Home & Under 2.58.3%

Draw & Under 2.56.8%

BTTS & Under 2.55.6%

Away & No BTTS5.0%

Away & Under 2.53.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.1%

HT Over 1.558.6%

HT Home Win48.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.4%

HT/FT Home/Home41.7%

HT Under 1.541.4%

HT Both Teams Score36.7%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw29.7%

HT Away Win21.6%

Equal Goals Each Half19.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.5%

HT Under 0.513.9%

HT/FT Away/Away12.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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