Germany · 2. Bundesliga

Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC

Kick-off 17:30 · Fri, Oct 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

76% confidence

Holstein Kiel 76.4% Draw 11.2% Hertha BSC 12.4%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-2 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Hertha BSC: 5 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.93 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

Holstein Kiel

L D D L L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Hertha BSC

W W L W L

Form 3-0-2 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.6 Conceded/game 1.8

📈 Probability Breakdown

Holstein Kiel win76.4%

Draw11.2%

Hertha BSC win12.4%

Over 1.5 goals99.1%

Over 2.5 goals95.8%

Over 3.5 goals88.9%

Both teams to score86.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.3%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.3%

Goal in Both Halves92.3%

Draw No Bet - Home85.8%

Home or Away (12)85.5%

Home or Draw (1X)83.8%

Home Win73.4%

Draw or Away (X2)22.5%

Draw No Bet - Away14.2%

Away Win12.1%

Draw10.4%

Exactly 1 Goal0.9%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.9%

Over 2.5 Goals91.9%

Over 3.5 Goals85.3%

4+ Goals85.3%

Over 4.5 Goals74.5%

Over 5.5 Goals60.2%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals39.8%

Under 4.5 Goals25.5%

2-4 Goals20.4%

3-4 Goals17.4%

Under 3.5 Goals14.7%

1-3 Goals10.5%

2-3 Goals9.6%

Under 2.5 Goals8.1%

Exactly 3 Goals6.6%

Under 1.5 Goals5.1%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals3.9%

Exactly 2 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score84.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)83.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.0%

Home Clean Sheet12.0%

Home Win to Nil11.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.584.0%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.559.0%

Away Over 2.533.1%

Away 3+ Goals33.1%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Away Exactly 124.9%

Away Exactly 012.0%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.3%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)83.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home83.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)79.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away79.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)73.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)67.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away67.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)59.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home59.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)52.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away52.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)43.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home43.7%

Home to win by 3+43.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away22.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)16.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.0%

Home to win by 114.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.5%

Away to win by 16.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.4%

Away to win by 23.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.3%

Away to win by 3+2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.581.7%

Home & Over 2.571.4%

Home & BTTS61.6%

Home & No BTTS11.9%

Away & Over 2.511.5%

Away & BTTS11.1%

Draw & BTTS10.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.2%

Draw & Over 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.8%

Home & Under 2.52.0%

Draw & Under 2.51.4%

BTTS & Under 2.51.3%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.8%

HT Over 1.579.5%

HT Home Win62.6%

HT/FT Home/Home57.4%

HT Both Teams Score52.7%

2nd Half More Goals52.1%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw20.7%

HT Under 1.520.5%

HT Away Win16.6%

Equal Goals Each Half15.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.8%

HT/FT Away/Away7.1%

HT/FT Away/Home6.2%

HT Under 0.55.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away1.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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