England · Premier League

Hull City vs Aston Villa

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Sep 5

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Hull City 38.7% Draw 29.9% Aston Villa 31.4%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 27%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

73%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

70%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 18.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Hull City: 14 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

18.9%

Exact-score model probability

Hull City

W D W W W D

Form 4-2-0 Goals 7:1 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.17

Aston Villa

L L W W W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 11:10 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Hull City win38.7%

Draw29.9%

Aston Villa win31.4%

Over 1.5 goals70.5%

Over 2.5 goals45.1%

Over 3.5 goals22.3%

Both teams to score27.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.6%

Under 4.5 Goals

89.4%

Home Team to Score

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)94.9%

Draw No Bet - Home94.0%

Home or Away (12)83.9%

Home Win78.9%

Both Halves Over 0.550.1%

Goal in Both Halves50.1%

Draw or Away (X2)21.1%

Exactly 1 Goal20.8%

Draw16.1%

Draw No Bet - Away6.0%

Away Win5.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.0%

Over 0.5 Goals91.6%

Under 4.5 Goals89.4%

Under 3.5 Goals76.2%

Over 1.5 Goals70.8%

1-3 Goals67.8%

2-4 Goals60.2%

Under 2.5 Goals54.9%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals46.5%

Over 2.5 Goals45.1%

3-4 Goals34.5%

Under 1.5 Goals29.2%

Exactly 2 Goals25.8%

Over 3.5 Goals23.8%

4+ Goals23.8%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Over 4.5 Goals10.6%

Under 0.5 Goals8.4%

Exactly 0 Goals8.4%

Over 5.5 Goals4.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score88.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)73.5%

Home Clean Sheet69.9%

Home Win to Nil61.5%

Away Team to Score30.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)26.5%

Away Clean Sheet12.0%

Away Win to Nil3.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.588.0%

Away Exactly 069.9%

Home Over 1.562.6%

Home Over 2.535.6%

Home 3+ Goals35.6%

Away Over 0.530.1%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Home Exactly 125.4%

Away Exactly 125.0%

Home Exactly 012.0%

Away Over 1.55.1%

Away Exactly 24.5%

Away Over 2.50.6%

Away 3+ Goals0.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home99.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.3%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)94.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home94.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away94.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away86.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)78.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)70.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away70.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)53.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home53.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)46.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away46.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)29.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home29.3%

Home to win by 3+29.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.4%

Home to win by 125.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw24.1%

Home to win by 224.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)13.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home13.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw8.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)5.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home5.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw4.3%

Away to win by 14.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home1.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away to win by 3+0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & No BTTS61.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.548.5%

Home & Over 2.542.2%

Home & Under 2.536.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.525.0%

BTTS & Over 2.520.1%

Home & BTTS17.3%

Draw & Under 2.514.7%

Draw & BTTS7.7%

BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Away & No BTTS3.6%

Away & Under 2.53.5%

Away & Over 2.51.5%

Away & BTTS1.5%

Draw & Over 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.569.3%

HT Over 0.567.2%

HT Home Win55.8%

HT/FT Home/Home53.7%

2nd Half More Goals42.5%

HT Draw38.0%

HT Under 0.532.8%

HT Over 1.530.7%

1st Half More Goals30.6%

Equal Goals Each Half26.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home23.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.1%

HT Both Teams Score9.2%

HT Away Win6.2%

HT/FT Away/Away2.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.0%

HT/FT Away/Home1.7%

HT/FT Home/Away0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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