UEFA Europa Conference League

Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

Kick-off 17:00 · Thu, Aug 13

📊 Our Prediction

Away +3.5 (Handicap)

50% confidence

Ilves 14.5% Draw 50.2% HNK Rijeka 35.3%

Over 2.5 - 6% BTTS - 13%

🎯 Best Pick

No Both Teams Score (NG)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-0 at 40.7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to HNK Rijeka: 7 points versus 9 across the last 5 matches.

Numbers behind this Away +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

40.7%

Exact-score model probability

Ilves

L W L W D

Form 2-1-2 Goals 4:3 Scored/game 0.8 Conceded/game 0.6

HNK Rijeka

W W W

Form 3-0-0 Goals 3:0 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0

Head to head · last 1

Ilves 0wins ·0 draws ·HNK Rijeka 1wins

Ilves 0-1 HNK RijekaAug 6, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ilves win14.5%

Draw50.2%

HNK Rijeka win35.3%

Over 1.5 goals23.7%

Over 2.5 goals6.3%

Over 3.5 goals1.3%

Both teams to score12.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

90.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

90.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)84.5%

Draw No Bet - Away70.1%

Home or Draw (1X)63.8%

Home or Away (12)51.7%

Draw48.3%

Exactly 1 Goal36.6%

Away Win36.2%

Draw No Bet - Home29.9%

Home Win15.5%

Both Halves Over 0.513.0%

Goal in Both Halves13.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals100.0%

Under 4.5 Goals99.8%

Under 3.5 Goals98.7%

Under 2.5 Goals93.7%

Under 1.5 Goals77.2%

Over 0.5 Goals59.3%

Total Goals Even58.3%

1-3 Goals58.0%

1-2 Goals53.1%

Total Goals Odd41.7%

Under 0.5 Goals40.7%

Exactly 0 Goals40.7%

Over 1.5 Goals22.8%

2-4 Goals22.5%

2-3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals16.5%

Over 2.5 Goals6.3%

3-4 Goals6.1%

Exactly 3 Goals4.9%

Over 3.5 Goals1.3%

4+ Goals1.3%

Over 4.5 Goals0.2%

Over 5.5 Goals0.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)88.3%

Away Clean Sheet74.1%

Home Clean Sheet54.9%

Away Team to Score45.1%

Away Win to Nil33.4%

Home Team to Score25.9%

Home Win to Nil14.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)11.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Exactly 074.1%

Away Exactly 054.9%

Away Over 0.545.1%

Away Exactly 132.9%

Home Over 0.525.9%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Over 1.512.2%

Away Exactly 29.9%

Home Over 1.53.7%

Home Exactly 23.3%

Away Over 2.52.3%

Away 3+ Goals2.3%

Home Over 2.50.4%

Home 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away84.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.7%

Away to win by 126.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)15.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.3%

Home to win by 113.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away9.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.8%

Away to win by 27.8%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.9%

Home to win by 21.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.8%

Away to win by 3+1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Home to win by 3+0.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.586.4%

Draw & Under 2.548.0%

Away & No BTTS33.4%

Away & Under 2.531.7%

Home & No BTTS14.2%

Home & Under 2.514.0%

Draw & BTTS7.7%

BTTS & Under 2.57.3%

Away & Over 2.54.5%

BTTS & Over 2.54.4%

Away & BTTS2.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.51.9%

Home & Over 2.51.4%

Home & BTTS1.3%

Draw & Over 2.50.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.593.7%

HT Draw69.2%

HT Under 0.566.7%

Equal Goals Each Half49.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw44.5%

HT Over 0.533.3%

2nd Half More Goals28.5%

1st Half More Goals22.3%

HT Away Win21.0%

HT/FT Away/Away19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away16.9%

HT Home Win9.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.8%

HT/FT Home/Home7.5%

HT Over 1.56.3%

HT Both Teams Score3.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

HT/FT Away/Home0.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions