UEFA Europa Conference League

Ilves vs Stjarnan

Kick-off 17:00 · Thu, Jul 30

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Ilves 30.5% Draw 30.3% Stjarnan 39.2%

Over 2.5 - 45% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 0.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 12.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Stjarnan: 4 points versus 7 across the last 3 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.8%

Exact-score model probability

Ilves

L W D

Form 1-1-1 Goals 3:2 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.67

Stjarnan

W D W

Form 2-1-0 Goals 6:3 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Ilves 0wins ·0 draws ·Stjarnan 1wins

Ilves 0-1 StjarnanJul 23, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ilves win30.5%

Draw30.3%

Stjarnan win39.2%

Over 1.5 goals72.6%

Over 2.5 goals45.2%

Over 3.5 goals23.9%

Both teams to score52.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.6%

Under 4.5 Goals

89.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

87.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)73.0%

Draw or Away (X2)67.9%

Home or Draw (1X)59.1%

Draw No Bet - Away56.0%

Both Halves Over 0.550.1%

Goal in Both Halves50.1%

Draw No Bet - Home44.0%

Away Win40.9%

Home Win32.1%

Draw27.0%

Exactly 1 Goal20.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals95.9%

Over 0.5 Goals91.6%

Under 4.5 Goals89.3%

Under 3.5 Goals76.1%

Over 1.5 Goals70.9%

1-3 Goals67.8%

2-4 Goals60.3%

Under 2.5 Goals54.8%

Total Goals Even50.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

2-3 Goals47.0%

1-2 Goals46.5%

Over 2.5 Goals45.2%

3-4 Goals34.5%

Under 1.5 Goals29.1%

Exactly 2 Goals25.7%

Over 3.5 Goals23.9%

4+ Goals23.9%

Exactly 3 Goals21.3%

Over 4.5 Goals10.7%

Under 0.5 Goals8.4%

Exactly 0 Goals8.3%

Over 5.5 Goals4.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score73.6%

Home Team to Score68.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)50.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)49.7%

Away Clean Sheet31.7%

Home Clean Sheet26.4%

Away Win to Nil23.3%

Home Win to Nil18.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.573.6%

Home Over 0.568.3%

Away Over 1.538.5%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Home Over 1.531.9%

Home Exactly 031.7%

Away Exactly 026.4%

Away Exactly 223.4%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Away Over 2.515.1%

Away 3+ Goals15.1%

Home Over 2.511.0%

Home 3+ Goals11.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)87.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away87.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)67.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away67.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)32.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.1%

Away to win by 122.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)13.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home13.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.0%

Away to win by 212.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw8.9%

Home to win by 28.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away6.7%

Away to win by 3+6.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home4.1%

Home to win by 3+4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw3.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.542.0%

BTTS & Over 2.537.5%

Away & No BTTS23.3%

Away & Over 2.522.3%

Draw & Under 2.521.1%

Draw & BTTS18.6%

Away & Under 2.518.5%

Home & No BTTS18.0%

Away & BTTS17.6%

Home & Over 2.517.0%

Home & Under 2.515.1%

Home & BTTS14.1%

BTTS & Under 2.512.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.7%

Draw & Over 2.55.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.569.3%

HT Over 0.567.3%

HT Draw43.7%

2nd Half More Goals42.5%

HT Under 0.532.7%

HT Away Win30.8%

HT Over 1.530.7%

1st Half More Goals30.7%

Equal Goals Each Half26.9%

HT Home Win25.5%

HT/FT Away/Away24.0%

HT/FT Home/Home18.3%

HT Both Teams Score18.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.0%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.8%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Ilves win10%

Draw45%

Stjarnan win45%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Stjarnan

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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