South-Korea · K League 1

Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Kick-off 11:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Incheon United 66.5% Draw 23.8% Gimcheon Sangmu FC 9.7%

Over 2.5 - 43% BTTS - 38%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 16.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Gimcheon Sangmu FC: 8 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16.5%

Exact-score model probability

Incheon United

D D W W L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 7:7 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

D W W D L D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 6:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 1

Incheon United 1wins ·0 draws ·Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0wins

Incheon United 3-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FCMay 9, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Incheon United win66.5%

Draw23.8%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC win9.7%

Over 1.5 goals70.5%

Over 2.5 goals43.2%

Over 3.5 goals22.3%

Both teams to score38.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

91.0%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.3%

Home or Draw (1X)

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.0%

Draw No Bet - Home86.1%

Home or Away (12)78.7%

Home Win67.7%

Both Halves Over 0.548.5%

Goal in Both Halves48.5%

Draw or Away (X2)32.3%

Exactly 1 Goal21.7%

Draw21.3%

Draw No Bet - Away13.9%

Away Win11.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.4%

Over 0.5 Goals91.0%

Under 4.5 Goals90.3%

Under 3.5 Goals77.7%

Over 1.5 Goals69.3%

1-3 Goals68.7%

2-4 Goals59.6%

Under 2.5 Goals56.8%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals47.8%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals43.2%

3-4 Goals33.5%

Under 1.5 Goals30.7%

Exactly 2 Goals26.1%

Over 3.5 Goals22.3%

4+ Goals22.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.9%

Over 4.5 Goals9.7%

Under 0.5 Goals9.0%

Exactly 0 Goals9.0%

Over 5.5 Goals3.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)63.2%

Home Clean Sheet56.2%

Home Win to Nil47.2%

Away Team to Score43.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)36.8%

Away Clean Sheet16.0%

Away Win to Nil7.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.0%

Away Exactly 056.2%

Home Over 1.554.6%

Away Over 0.543.8%

Away Exactly 132.4%

Home Exactly 129.3%

Home Over 2.527.8%

Home 3+ Goals27.8%

Home Exactly 226.9%

Home Exactly 016.0%

Away Over 1.511.4%

Away Exactly 29.3%

Away Over 2.52.1%

Away 3+ Goals2.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home97.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away80.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)67.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)59.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away59.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)40.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home40.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)32.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away32.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw26.9%

Home to win by 126.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.2%

Home to win by 221.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)19.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home19.7%

Home to win by 3+19.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw11.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.5%

Away to win by 18.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw5.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.4%

Away to win by 3+0.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.3%

Home & No BTTS47.2%

Home & Over 2.536.1%

Home & Under 2.531.6%

BTTS & Over 2.527.3%

Home & BTTS20.5%

Draw & Under 2.518.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.515.9%

Draw & BTTS12.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.5%

Away & No BTTS7.0%

Away & Under 2.56.7%

Away & Over 2.54.3%

Away & BTTS4.0%

Draw & Over 2.52.8%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.5%

HT Over 0.566.1%

HT Home Win47.4%

HT/FT Home/Home43.7%

2nd Half More Goals42.1%

HT Draw41.5%

HT Under 0.533.9%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.5%

Equal Goals Each Half27.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.9%

HT Both Teams Score12.8%

HT Away Win11.1%

HT/FT Away/Away5.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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