Italy · Serie A

Inter vs Fiorentina

Kick-off 12:30 · Sun, Oct 25

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Inter 77.6% Draw 13.5% Fiorentina 8.6%

Over 2.5 - 97% BTTS - 90%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

90%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

89%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Inter: 13 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.2%

Exact-score model probability

Inter

W W L W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 17:10 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.67

Fiorentina

L L D W L L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 8:13 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 2.17

Head to head · last 5

Inter 3wins ·1 draws ·Fiorentina 1wins

Inter 1-1 FiorentinaMar 22, 2026

Inter 3-0 FiorentinaOct 29, 2025

Inter 2-1 FiorentinaFeb 10, 2025

Inter 0-3 FiorentinaFeb 6, 2025

Inter 1-0 FiorentinaJan 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Inter win77.6%

Draw13.5%

Fiorentina win8.6%

Over 1.5 goals88.6%

Over 2.5 goals96.7%

Over 3.5 goals51.4%

Both teams to score90.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.586.7%

Goal in Both Halves86.7%

Home or Away (12)85.2%

Home or Draw (1X)82.3%

Draw No Bet - Home80.6%

Home Win68.6%

Draw or Away (X2)30.3%

Draw No Bet - Away19.4%

Away Win16.6%

Draw13.7%

Exactly 1 Goal2.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals96.1%

Over 2.5 Goals89.6%

Over 3.5 Goals77.8%

4+ Goals77.8%

Over 4.5 Goals61.9%

Under 5.5 Goals55.3%

Total Goals Odd49.4%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Over 5.5 Goals44.7%

Under 4.5 Goals38.1%

2-4 Goals34.1%

3-4 Goals27.6%

Under 3.5 Goals22.2%

1-3 Goals20.6%

2-3 Goals18.2%

Exactly 3 Goals11.7%

Under 2.5 Goals10.4%

1-2 Goals8.9%

Exactly 2 Goals6.5%

Under 1.5 Goals3.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.1%

Away Team to Score83.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)81.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.9%

Home Clean Sheet15.4%

Home Win to Nil15.0%

Away Clean Sheet2.8%

Away Win to Nil2.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.1%

Home Over 1.586.0%

Away Over 0.583.5%

Home Over 2.568.0%

Home 3+ Goals68.0%

Away Over 1.554.8%

Away Exactly 128.7%

Away Over 2.528.2%

Away 3+ Goals28.2%

Away Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 218.0%

Away Exactly 015.4%

Home Exactly 110.1%

Home Exactly 02.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)91.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home91.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)78.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away78.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)68.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)64.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away64.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home51.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)47.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away47.3%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)34.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home34.4%

Home to win by 3+34.4%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)30.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away30.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)20.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home20.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw17.1%

Home to win by 217.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 117.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)16.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home10.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 18.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw4.7%

Away to win by 24.7%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.0%

Away to win by 3+3.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.2%

Home & Over 2.564.2%

Home & BTTS53.6%

Away & Over 2.515.0%

Home & No BTTS15.0%

Away & BTTS14.2%

Draw & BTTS13.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.4%

Draw & Over 2.510.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.56.4%

Home & Under 2.54.4%

Draw & Under 2.53.4%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Away & No BTTS2.4%

Away & Under 2.51.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.3%

HT Over 1.570.0%

HT Home Win55.6%

2nd Half More Goals50.4%

HT/FT Home/Home49.3%

HT Both Teams Score45.3%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.530.0%

HT Draw24.9%

HT Away Win19.5%

Equal Goals Each Half17.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.8%

HT/FT Away/Away9.7%

HT Under 0.58.7%

HT/FT Away/Home5.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away4.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.2%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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