Italy · Serie A

Inter vs Monza

Kick-off 17:30 · Sat, Aug 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

87% confidence

Inter 86.8% Draw 9.0% Monza 3.6%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Inter: 12 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Inter

D D W W D W

Form 3-3-0 Goals 14:6 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 1

Monza

W W D D L L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:10 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.67

Head to head · last 5

Inter 3wins ·1 draws ·Monza 1wins

Inter 3-2 MonzaMar 8, 2025

Inter 1-1 MonzaSep 15, 2024

Inter 5-1 MonzaJan 13, 2024

Inter 2-0 MonzaAug 19, 2023

Inter 0-1 MonzaApr 15, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Inter win86.8%

Draw9.0%

Monza win3.6%

Over 1.5 goals88.4%

Over 2.5 goals92.6%

Over 3.5 goals51.1%

Both teams to score72.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

91.4%

Draw No Bet - Home

90.4%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home90.4%

Home or Draw (1X)90.2%

Home or Away (12)88.1%

Both Halves Over 0.583.3%

Goal in Both Halves83.3%

Home Win79.6%

Draw or Away (X2)19.0%

Draw10.6%

Draw No Bet - Away9.6%

Away Win8.5%

Exactly 1 Goal3.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals94.4%

Over 2.5 Goals85.7%

Over 3.5 Goals71.4%

4+ Goals71.4%

Under 5.5 Goals63.9%

Over 4.5 Goals53.7%

Total Goals Even49.4%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

Under 4.5 Goals46.3%

2-4 Goals40.8%

Over 5.5 Goals36.1%

3-4 Goals32.1%

Under 3.5 Goals28.6%

1-3 Goals26.5%

2-3 Goals23.0%

Under 2.5 Goals14.3%

Exactly 3 Goals14.3%

1-2 Goals12.2%

Exactly 2 Goals8.7%

Under 1.5 Goals5.6%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score96.2%

Away Team to Score70.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)31.0%

Home Clean Sheet27.9%

Home Win to Nil27.2%

Away Clean Sheet2.5%

Away Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.596.2%

Home Over 1.586.9%

Away Over 0.570.8%

Home Over 2.569.8%

Home 3+ Goals69.8%

Away Over 1.535.6%

Away Exactly 135.2%

Away Exactly 027.9%

Away Exactly 222.3%

Home Exactly 217.1%

Away Over 2.513.3%

Away 3+ Goals13.3%

Home Exactly 19.3%

Home Exactly 02.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)98.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)91.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)83.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away83.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)70.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away70.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home63.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)53.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away53.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)45.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home45.6%

Home to win by 3+45.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away34.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)28.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home28.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)19.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away19.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 115.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw13.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.4%

Away to win by 15.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.9%

Away to win by 3+0.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.572.2%

BTTS & Over 2.565.7%

Home & BTTS52.5%

Home & No BTTS27.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.1%

Draw & BTTS9.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.6%

Home & Under 2.57.4%

Away & Over 2.57.0%

Away & BTTS6.7%

Draw & Over 2.56.5%

Draw & Under 2.54.0%

BTTS & Under 2.53.3%

Away & No BTTS1.8%

Away & Under 2.51.5%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.2%

HT Over 1.565.2%

HT Home Win64.0%

HT/FT Home/Home60.0%

2nd Half More Goals49.5%

HT Both Teams Score35.1%

HT Under 1.534.8%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw23.6%

Equal Goals Each Half18.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.2%

HT Away Win12.4%

HT Under 0.510.8%

HT/FT Away/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.8%

HT/FT Home/Away1.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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