Brazil · Serie A

Internacional vs Flamengo

Kick-off 23:30 · Wed, Jul 29

📊 Our Prediction

Away Win

58% confidence

Internacional 20.0% Draw 22.0% Flamengo 58.0%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

Flamengo's strong form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 49%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

High scoring potential

80%

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS rate is high

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Internacional's recent form has been poor, with four consecutive losses. Flamengo, on the other hand, has been performing well, with a strong away record. The absence of key players for Internacional could further weaken their attack. Flamengo's attacking threat, led by their skilled players, could prove too much for Internacional's defense. With both teams capable of scoring, the match is likely to be an open one.

💡

Top Tip

Flamengo's strong form and Internacional's weaknesses make Away Win a compelling pick

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.8%, based on the goal model.

Flamengo's strong form

Recent form leans to Flamengo: 7 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away Win

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.8%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

49%

Market does not fully agree

Internacional

L L L W D W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 8:9 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.5

Flamengo

D W L D W D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 9:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.17

🏥 Internacional unavailable

Thiago Maia · Hamstring Injury

S. Rochet · Lower Back Injury

Kayky · Ankle Injury

B. Arhin · Hamstring Injury

🏥 Flamengo unavailable

Lucas Paqueta · Muscle Injury

G. Plata · Health problems

Luiz Araujo · Knee Injury

📈 Probability Breakdown

Internacional win20.0%

Draw22.0%

Flamengo win58.0%

Over 1.5 goals85.1%

Over 2.5 goals63.8%

Over 3.5 goals41.4%

Both teams to score62.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

92.0%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)79.3%

Home or Away (12)79.2%

Draw No Bet - Away73.9%

Both Halves Over 0.564.4%

Goal in Both Halves64.4%

Away Win58.5%

Home or Draw (1X)41.4%

Draw No Bet - Home26.1%

Home Win20.7%

Draw20.7%

Exactly 1 Goal12.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.2%

Under 5.5 Goals88.6%

Over 1.5 Goals83.8%

Under 4.5 Goals76.7%

Over 2.5 Goals63.5%

2-4 Goals60.5%

Under 3.5 Goals58.6%

1-3 Goals54.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.4%

Over 3.5 Goals41.4%

4+ Goals41.4%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals36.5%

1-2 Goals32.6%

Over 4.5 Goals23.3%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.3%

Under 1.5 Goals16.2%

Over 5.5 Goals11.4%

Under 0.5 Goals3.8%

Exactly 0 Goals3.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score87.7%

Home Team to Score69.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)39.3%

Away Clean Sheet30.8%

Away Win to Nil27.1%

Home Clean Sheet12.2%

Home Win to Nil8.5%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.587.7%

Home Over 0.569.1%

Away Over 1.562.0%

Home Exactly 136.3%

Away Over 2.535.0%

Away 3+ Goals35.0%

Home Over 1.532.9%

Home Exactly 030.8%

Away Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 125.7%

Home Exactly 221.3%

Away Exactly 012.2%

Home Over 2.511.5%

Home 3+ Goals11.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)97.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home97.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home92.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away92.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)81.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home81.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)79.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away79.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)64.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home64.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)58.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)41.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home41.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)35.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away35.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.7%

Away to win by 122.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)18.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away18.1%

Away to win by 3+18.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 217.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw12.7%

Home to win by 112.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw10.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)7.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away7.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.5%

Home to win by 25.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw4.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away2.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.4%

Home to win by 3+2.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.551.3%

Away & Over 2.542.3%

Away & BTTS31.5%

Away & No BTTS27.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.527.1%

Draw & BTTS16.9%

Away & Under 2.516.3%

Home & Over 2.513.7%

Draw & Under 2.513.1%

Home & BTTS12.2%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.2%

BTTS & Under 2.59.3%

Home & No BTTS8.5%

Draw & Over 2.57.6%

Home & Under 2.57.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.1%

HT Under 1.556.6%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Away Win44.2%

HT Over 1.543.4%

HT/FT Away/Away37.8%

HT Draw35.9%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Both Teams Score25.1%

HT Under 0.522.9%

Equal Goals Each Half22.8%

HT Home Win19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.2%

HT/FT Home/Home11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home7.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Home/Away3.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.6%

🏥 Injuries & Suspensions

Flamengo

Lucas Paqueta Muscle Injury

G. Plata Health problems

Luiz Araujo Knee Injury

Internacional

Thiago Maia Hamstring Injury

S. Rochet Lower Back Injury

Kayky Ankle Injury

B. Arhin Hamstring Injury

Joao Victor Inactive

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Internacional win0%

Draw50%

Flamengo win50%

AdviceDouble chance : draw or Flamengo

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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