England · League Cup

Ipswich vs Arsenal

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Sep 15

📊 Our Prediction

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

83% confidence

Ipswich 3.2% Draw 14.3% Arsenal 82.5%

Over 2.5 - 52% BTTS - 28%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

86%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

Away Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 19.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Arsenal: 12 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +2.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

19.2%

Exact-score model probability

Ipswich

W L L W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 13:11 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.83

Arsenal

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 11:2 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 2

Ipswich 0wins ·0 draws ·Arsenal 2wins

Ipswich 0-4 ArsenalApr 20, 2025

Ipswich 0-1 ArsenalDec 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Ipswich win3.2%

Draw14.3%

Arsenal win82.5%

Over 1.5 goals77.0%

Over 2.5 goals52.2%

Over 3.5 goals30.0%

Both teams to score27.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

91.6%

Away Team to Score

91.2%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)96.8%

Draw No Bet - Away96.4%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Away Win84.7%

Both Halves Over 0.555.2%

Goal in Both Halves55.2%

Exactly 1 Goal17.7%

Home or Draw (1X)15.2%

Draw12.1%

Draw No Bet - Home3.6%

Home Win3.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.1%

Over 0.5 Goals93.5%

Under 4.5 Goals85.7%

Over 1.5 Goals75.8%

Under 3.5 Goals70.6%

1-3 Goals64.0%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals51.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Under 2.5 Goals48.4%

2-3 Goals46.4%

1-2 Goals41.9%

3-4 Goals37.3%

Over 3.5 Goals29.4%

4+ Goals29.4%

Under 1.5 Goals24.2%

Exactly 2 Goals24.2%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Over 4.5 Goals14.3%

Under 0.5 Goals6.5%

Exactly 0 Goals6.4%

Over 5.5 Goals5.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score91.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)76.4%

Away Clean Sheet74.0%

Away Win to Nil67.6%

Home Team to Score25.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)23.6%

Home Clean Sheet8.7%

Home Win to Nil2.3%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.591.2%

Home Exactly 074.0%

Away Over 1.570.0%

Away Over 2.544.1%

Away 3+ Goals44.1%

Home Over 0.525.9%

Away Exactly 225.9%

Home Exactly 122.2%

Away Exactly 121.2%

Away Exactly 08.7%

Home Over 1.53.7%

Home Exactly 23.3%

Home Over 2.50.4%

Home 3+ Goals0.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away99.5%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home91.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)84.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home80.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)62.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away62.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)61.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home61.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)38.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away38.1%

Away to win by 3+38.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)37.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home37.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw24.4%

Away to win by 224.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw22.2%

Away to win by 122.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)19.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away19.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw18.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home15.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw11.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)3.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw2.7%

Home to win by 12.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw0.4%

Home to win by 20.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Home to win by 3+0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & No BTTS67.6%

Away & Over 2.549.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.543.6%

Away & Under 2.534.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.532.7%

BTTS & Over 2.518.9%

Away & BTTS17.1%

Draw & Under 2.511.2%

Draw & BTTS5.7%

BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Home & No BTTS2.3%

Home & Under 2.52.2%

Home & Over 2.50.9%

Draw & Over 2.50.9%

Home & BTTS0.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.9%

HT Under 1.565.0%

HT Away Win61.9%

HT/FT Away/Away60.3%

2nd Half More Goals43.6%

HT Over 1.535.0%

HT Draw33.6%

1st Half More Goals31.1%

HT Under 0.529.1%

Equal Goals Each Half25.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away22.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw9.2%

HT Both Teams Score8.4%

HT Home Win4.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home1.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Home/Home1.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Home/Away1.5%

HT/FT Away/Home0.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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