UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia vs Anderlecht

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 22

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

79% confidence

Jagiellonia 79.3% Draw 12.5% Anderlecht 8.2%

Over 2.5 - 83% BTTS - 66%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

92%

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Anderlecht: 10 points versus 15 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.25 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Jagiellonia

W W D W

Form 3-1-0 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 2.25 Conceded/game 0.75

Anderlecht

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

📈 Probability Breakdown

Jagiellonia win79.3%

Draw12.5%

Anderlecht win8.2%

Over 1.5 goals94.6%

Over 2.5 goals83.1%

Over 3.5 goals66.4%

Both teams to score66.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Draw (1X)

90.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)

90.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.5%

Draw No Bet - Home90.2%

Home or Away (12)87.8%

Both Halves Over 0.580.0%

Goal in Both Halves80.0%

Home Win79.2%

Draw or Away (X2)20.0%

Draw11.3%

Draw No Bet - Away9.8%

Away Win8.6%

Exactly 1 Goal4.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.1%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals82.4%

Under 5.5 Goals70.2%

Over 3.5 Goals65.8%

4+ Goals65.8%

Under 4.5 Goals53.0%

Total Goals Even49.6%

Total Goals Odd49.5%

Over 4.5 Goals47.0%

2-4 Goals46.3%

3-4 Goals35.4%

Under 3.5 Goals34.2%

1-3 Goals32.3%

Over 5.5 Goals29.8%

2-3 Goals27.5%

Under 2.5 Goals17.6%

Exactly 3 Goals16.6%

1-2 Goals15.7%

Exactly 2 Goals10.9%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals1.9%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.9%

Away Team to Score67.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)65.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)34.8%

Home Clean Sheet31.7%

Home Win to Nil30.7%

Away Clean Sheet3.3%

Away Win to Nil2.2%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.9%

Home Over 1.584.6%

Away Over 0.567.4%

Home Over 2.565.5%

Home 3+ Goals65.5%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Away Exactly 031.7%

Away Over 1.531.3%

Away Exactly 220.6%

Home Exactly 219.2%

Home Exactly 111.2%

Away Over 2.510.7%

Away 3+ Goals10.7%

Home Exactly 03.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)93.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away85.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)79.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)73.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away73.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)62.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home62.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)56.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away56.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)43.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home43.1%

Home to win by 3+43.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)36.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away36.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 219.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.9%

Home to win by 116.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)13.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home13.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.4%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)8.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw7.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home6.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw5.6%

Away to win by 15.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.1%

Away to win by 22.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.8%

Away to win by 3+0.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.6%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.569.5%

BTTS & Over 2.561.1%

Home & BTTS48.5%

Home & No BTTS30.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Draw & BTTS10.3%

Home & Under 2.59.7%

Away & Over 2.56.7%

Away & BTTS6.4%

Draw & Over 2.56.2%

Draw & Under 2.55.1%

BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Away & No BTTS2.2%

Away & Under 2.51.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.1%

HT Home Win62.6%

HT Over 1.560.7%

HT/FT Home/Home58.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Under 1.539.3%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Both Teams Score31.5%

HT Draw25.2%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.0%

HT Under 0.512.9%

HT Away Win12.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Away4.7%

HT/FT Away/Home4.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away2.9%

HT/FT Home/Away0.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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