UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

Kick-off 20:00 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

91% confidence

Jagiellonia 90.6% Draw 6.6% Ararat-Armenia 2.8%

Over 2.5 - 88% BTTS - 57%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Strongest 1X2 probability

91%

Draw No Bet - Home

DNB home — draw refunds stake

91%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-0 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.42 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Jagiellonia

W W D W

Form 3-1-0 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 2.25 Conceded/game 0.75

Ararat-Armenia

W D L W L W

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

Jagiellonia win90.6%

Draw6.6%

Ararat-Armenia win2.8%

Over 1.5 goals96.6%

Over 2.5 goals88.2%

Over 3.5 goals74.5%

Both teams to score57.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home or Away (12)

91.1%

HT Over 0.5

90.1%

Home Over 1.5

89.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.6%

Home or Draw (1X)93.9%

Home or Away (12)91.1%

Home Win88.1%

Both Halves Over 0.584.7%

Goal in Both Halves84.7%

Draw or Away (X2)8.9%

Draw5.8%

Draw No Bet - Away3.4%

Away Win3.1%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.4%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals85.6%

Over 3.5 Goals72.3%

4+ Goals72.3%

Under 5.5 Goals62.3%

Over 4.5 Goals55.2%

Total Goals Even48.6%

Total Goals Odd48.4%

Under 4.5 Goals44.8%

2-4 Goals38.1%

Over 5.5 Goals37.7%

3-4 Goals30.4%

Under 3.5 Goals27.7%

1-3 Goals24.1%

2-3 Goals21.1%

Under 2.5 Goals14.4%

Exactly 3 Goals13.3%

1-2 Goals10.8%

Exactly 2 Goals7.8%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals3.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.6%

Away Team to Score56.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)55.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)44.8%

Home Clean Sheet40.9%

Home Win to Nil40.3%

Away Clean Sheet1.4%

Away Win to Nil0.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.6%

Home Over 1.589.6%

Home Over 2.576.8%

Home 3+ Goals76.8%

Away Over 0.556.0%

Away Exactly 040.9%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Over 1.520.7%

Away Exactly 215.2%

Home Exactly 212.8%

Home Exactly 16.0%

Away Over 2.55.5%

Away 3+ Goals5.5%

Home Exactly 01.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home93.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)88.1%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)82.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)77.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home77.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)70.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away70.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)61.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home61.1%

Home to win by 3+61.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)53.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away53.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)43.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home43.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)35.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away35.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)26.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home26.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away20.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.9%

Home to win by 215.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home14.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw11.1%

Home to win by 111.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)8.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away8.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 12.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.580.2%

BTTS & Over 2.553.1%

Home & BTTS47.8%

Home & No BTTS40.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.532.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.59.2%

Home & Under 2.57.9%

Draw & BTTS5.2%

Draw & Over 2.53.0%

Draw & Under 2.52.8%

Away & Over 2.52.3%

Away & BTTS2.3%

BTTS & Under 2.52.2%

Away & No BTTS0.8%

Away & Under 2.50.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.1%

HT Home Win74.6%

HT/FT Home/Home72.7%

HT Over 1.567.1%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT Under 1.532.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score27.5%

HT Draw18.8%

Equal Goals Each Half17.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.0%

HT Under 0.59.9%

HT Away Win6.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.8%

HT/FT Away/Away1.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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