UEFA Europa League

Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo

Kick-off 17:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

51% confidence

Jagiellonia 50.7% Draw 24.5% Saburtalo 24.8%

Over 2.5 - 64% BTTS - 65%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Away (12)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.7%

Exact-score model probability

Jagiellonia

D W

Form 1-1-0 Goals 3:2 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1

Saburtalo

W D D L D W

Form 2-3-1 Goals 8:8 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.33

📈 Probability Breakdown

Jagiellonia win50.7%

Draw24.5%

Saburtalo win24.8%

Over 1.5 goals85.3%

Over 2.5 goals63.8%

Over 3.5 goals41.7%

Both teams to score64.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

88.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

88.9%

Under 5.5 Goals

88.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.0%

Home or Draw (1X)73.9%

Draw No Bet - Home66.6%

Both Halves Over 0.564.6%

Goal in Both Halves64.6%

Home Win51.9%

Draw or Away (X2)48.0%

Draw No Bet - Away33.4%

Away Win26.1%

Draw22.0%

Exactly 1 Goal12.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals96.2%

Under 5.5 Goals88.5%

Over 1.5 Goals84.0%

Under 4.5 Goals76.5%

Over 2.5 Goals63.8%

2-4 Goals60.5%

Under 3.5 Goals58.3%

1-3 Goals54.6%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals42.3%

Over 3.5 Goals41.7%

4+ Goals41.7%

3-4 Goals40.3%

Under 2.5 Goals36.2%

1-2 Goals32.5%

Over 4.5 Goals23.5%

Exactly 3 Goals22.1%

Exactly 2 Goals20.2%

Under 1.5 Goals16.0%

Over 5.5 Goals11.5%

Under 0.5 Goals3.8%

Exactly 0 Goals3.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.8%

Away Team to Score73.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.2%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.8%

Home Clean Sheet26.4%

Home Win to Nil22.6%

Away Clean Sheet14.2%

Away Win to Nil10.4%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.8%

Away Over 0.573.6%

Home Over 1.558.1%

Away Over 1.538.5%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Home Over 2.531.1%

Home 3+ Goals31.1%

Home Exactly 127.7%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 026.4%

Away Exactly 223.4%

Away Over 2.515.1%

Away 3+ Goals15.1%

Home Exactly 014.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)96.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home96.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)88.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home88.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away85.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)73.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home73.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)70.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away70.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)51.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)48.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away48.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)30.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home30.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)26.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw22.0%

Home to win by 122.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.7%

Home to win by 215.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.0%

Away to win by 115.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home14.2%

Home to win by 3+14.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw8.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 27.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away3.8%

Away to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw2.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.553.5%

Home & Over 2.537.5%

Home & BTTS29.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.526.5%

Home & No BTTS22.6%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Away & Over 2.517.8%

Away & BTTS15.7%

Home & Under 2.514.4%

Draw & Under 2.513.5%

Away & No BTTS10.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.510.3%

BTTS & Under 2.59.7%

Draw & Over 2.58.5%

Away & Under 2.58.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.577.2%

HT Under 1.556.5%

2nd Half More Goals45.5%

HT Over 1.543.5%

HT Home Win40.0%

HT Draw36.5%

HT/FT Home/Home32.8%

1st Half More Goals31.7%

HT Both Teams Score26.4%

HT Away Win23.6%

HT Under 0.522.8%

Equal Goals Each Half22.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home15.8%

HT/FT Away/Away15.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw11.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.4%

HT/FT Home/Away2.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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