Italy · Serie A

Juventus vs AC Milan

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Sep 6

📊 Our Prediction

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Juventus 46.1% Draw 27.4% AC Milan 26.5%

Over 2.5 - 39% BTTS - 36%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

74%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

64%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 24.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Juventus: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +3.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

24.8%

Exact-score model probability

Juventus

W W D L W D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 7:5 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 0.83

AC Milan

W W L W L L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 9:9 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Juventus 1wins ·4 draws ·AC Milan 0wins

Juventus 0-0 AC MilanApr 26, 2026

Juventus 0-0 AC MilanOct 5, 2025

Juventus 2-0 AC MilanJan 18, 2025

Juventus 0-0 AC MilanNov 23, 2024

Juventus 0-0 AC MilanApr 27, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Juventus win46.1%

Draw27.4%

AC Milan win26.5%

Over 1.5 goals67.5%

Over 2.5 goals38.9%

Over 3.5 goals20.6%

Both teams to score36.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

91.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)89.4%

Draw No Bet - Home85.0%

Home or Away (12)70.4%

Home Win59.8%

Draw or Away (X2)40.2%

Exactly 1 Goal31.9%

Both Halves Over 0.530.9%

Goal in Both Halves30.9%

Draw29.6%

Draw No Bet - Away15.0%

Away Win10.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.3%

Under 4.5 Goals97.4%

Under 3.5 Goals91.6%

Over 0.5 Goals80.5%

Under 2.5 Goals77.5%

1-3 Goals72.1%

1-2 Goals57.9%

Total Goals Even51.9%

Under 1.5 Goals51.4%

Over 1.5 Goals48.6%

Total Goals Odd48.1%

2-4 Goals46.0%

2-3 Goals40.2%

Exactly 2 Goals26.1%

Over 2.5 Goals22.5%

3-4 Goals20.0%

Under 0.5 Goals19.5%

Exactly 0 Goals19.5%

Exactly 3 Goals14.2%

Over 3.5 Goals8.4%

4+ Goals8.4%

Over 4.5 Goals2.6%

Over 5.5 Goals0.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)78.1%

Home Team to Score71.9%

Home Clean Sheet69.5%

Home Win to Nil50.0%

Away Team to Score30.5%

Away Clean Sheet28.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)21.9%

Away Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.571.9%

Away Exactly 069.5%

Home Over 1.536.3%

Home Exactly 135.7%

Away Over 0.530.5%

Home Exactly 028.1%

Away Exactly 125.3%

Home Exactly 222.6%

Home Over 2.513.6%

Home 3+ Goals13.6%

Away Over 1.55.2%

Away Exactly 24.6%

Away Over 2.50.6%

Away 3+ Goals0.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +3.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home89.4%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)71.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away71.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw31.0%

Home to win by 131.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)28.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home28.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.3%

Home to win by 218.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)10.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.5%

Home to win by 3+10.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw8.9%

Away to win by 18.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.5%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw1.5%

Away to win by 21.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.568.4%

Home & No BTTS50.0%

Home & Under 2.540.5%

Draw & Under 2.528.5%

Home & Over 2.519.3%

BTTS & Over 2.512.9%

Draw & BTTS10.1%

Home & BTTS9.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

BTTS & Under 2.59.0%

Away & No BTTS8.6%

Away & Under 2.58.4%

Away & Over 2.52.2%

Away & BTTS2.0%

Draw & Over 2.51.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.583.2%

HT Draw52.5%

HT Over 0.552.1%

HT Under 0.547.9%

HT Home Win38.5%

2nd Half More Goals37.3%

HT/FT Home/Home35.7%

Equal Goals Each Half34.7%

1st Half More Goals28.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw24.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home23.0%

HT Over 1.516.8%

HT Away Win8.9%

HT Both Teams Score6.6%

HT/FT Away/Away5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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