UEFA Champions League

Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia

Kick-off 16:00 · Tue, Aug 11

📊 Our Prediction

Draw or Away (X2)

40% confidence

Kairat Almaty 24.0% Draw 36.0% Levski Sofia 40.0%

Over 2.5 - 26% BTTS - 35%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Levski Sofia form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 63%

⚠️ AIs disagree

62%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 2.5 Goals

Low scoring trend

74%

Away Team to Score

Levski Sofia attack

66%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia have a recent head-to-head with Levski Sofia winning 1-0. Kairat Almaty has a home pi-rating of 0.15, slightly stronger than Levski Sofia's away pi-rating of 0.01. Considering the low scoring trend and Levski Sofia's recent form, the match is likely to be closely contested. The away team's ability to score is a significant factor.

💡

Top Tip

Draw or Away is a strong pick given Levski Sofia's recent performance

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

X2 · Draw or Away covers 76% of the model's 1X2 probability, leaving 24.0% on the only losing outcome.

Levski Sofia form

Recent form leans to Levski Sofia: 9 points versus 11 across the last 5 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.80 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Draw or Away (X2)

X2 · Draw or Away

76%

Two outcomes covered by the model

Loss probability

24%

Only the uncovered result loses

Bookmaker implied chance

63%

Market does not fully agree

Kairat Almaty

L W L W W

Form 3-0-2 Goals 5:3 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 0.6

Levski Sofia

W D W W D

Form 3-2-0 Goals 9:3 Scored/game 1.8 Conceded/game 0.6

Head to head · last 1

Kairat Almaty 0wins ·0 draws ·Levski Sofia 1wins

Kairat Almaty 0-1 Levski SofiaAug 4, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Kairat Almaty win24.0%

Draw36.0%

Levski Sofia win40.0%

Over 1.5 goals54.5%

Over 2.5 goals26.1%

Over 3.5 goals10.4%

Both teams to score34.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 3.5 Goals

89.6%

Over 0.5 Goals

83.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

81.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)76.8%

Home or Away (12)67.7%

Draw No Bet - Away65.7%

Home or Draw (1X)55.5%

Away Win44.5%

Draw No Bet - Home34.3%

Both Halves Over 0.534.2%

Goal in Both Halves34.2%

Draw32.3%

Exactly 1 Goal30.1%

Home Win23.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals99.0%

Under 4.5 Goals96.6%

Under 3.5 Goals89.6%

Over 0.5 Goals83.0%

Under 2.5 Goals73.9%

1-3 Goals72.6%

1-2 Goals56.8%

Over 1.5 Goals52.8%

Total Goals Even51.5%

2-4 Goals49.4%

Total Goals Odd48.5%

Under 1.5 Goals47.2%

2-3 Goals42.4%

Exactly 2 Goals26.7%

Over 2.5 Goals26.1%

3-4 Goals22.7%

Under 0.5 Goals17.0%

Exactly 0 Goals17.0%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

Over 3.5 Goals10.4%

4+ Goals10.4%

Over 4.5 Goals3.4%

Over 5.5 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

No Both Teams Score (NG)67.1%

Away Team to Score66.0%

Away Clean Sheet50.2%

Home Team to Score49.8%

Home Clean Sheet34.0%

Away Win to Nil33.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)32.9%

Home Win to Nil16.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.566.0%

Home Exactly 050.2%

Home Over 0.549.8%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 134.6%

Away Exactly 034.0%

Away Over 1.529.4%

Away Exactly 219.8%

Home Over 1.515.2%

Home Exactly 211.9%

Away Over 2.59.6%

Away 3+ Goals9.6%

Home Over 2.53.3%

Home 3+ Goals3.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away100.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)93.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away93.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)76.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away76.8%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)55.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home55.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)44.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw26.2%

Away to win by 126.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)23.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw16.7%

Home to win by 116.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.6%

Away to win by 212.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.7%

Away to win by 3+5.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.2%

Home to win by 25.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw4.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.3%

Home to win by 3+1.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.561.2%

Away & No BTTS33.1%

Draw & Under 2.529.7%

Away & Under 2.528.3%

BTTS & Over 2.520.2%

Home & No BTTS16.9%

Away & Over 2.516.2%

Home & Under 2.515.8%

Draw & BTTS15.3%

BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Away & BTTS11.4%

Home & Over 2.57.4%

Home & BTTS6.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.55.9%

Draw & Over 2.52.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.581.0%

HT Over 0.554.9%

HT Draw52.2%

HT Under 0.545.1%

2nd Half More Goals38.3%

Equal Goals Each Half33.0%

HT Away Win30.2%

1st Half More Goals28.6%

HT/FT Away/Away25.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw24.4%

HT Over 1.519.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.7%

HT Home Win17.6%

HT/FT Home/Home12.3%

HT Both Teams Score10.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home10.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

HT/FT Away/Home0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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