Turkey · Süper Lig

Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor

Kick-off 11:30 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

40% confidence

Kasımpaşa 38.8% Draw 21.0% Samsunspor 40.2%

Over 2.5 - 82% BTTS - 80%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

79%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Samsunspor: 5 points versus 7 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.1%

Exact-score model probability

Kasımpaşa

D W L D

Form 1-2-1 Goals 5:5 Scored/game 1.25 Conceded/game 1.25

Samsunspor

D W L W

Form 2-1-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Kasımpaşa win38.8%

Draw21.0%

Samsunspor win40.2%

Over 1.5 goals94.4%

Over 2.5 goals82.2%

Over 3.5 goals65.1%

Both teams to score80.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away Team to Score

89.4%

Away Over 0.5

89.4%

Home Team to Score

89.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.4%

Both Halves Over 0.579.2%

Goal in Both Halves79.2%

Draw or Away (X2)60.4%

Home or Draw (1X)59.0%

Draw No Bet - Away50.8%

Draw No Bet - Home49.2%

Away Win40.9%

Home Win39.5%

Draw19.5%

Exactly 1 Goal5.1%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals93.6%

Over 2.5 Goals82.1%

Under 5.5 Goals71.0%

Over 3.5 Goals65.1%

4+ Goals65.1%

Under 4.5 Goals54.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-4 Goals47.6%

Over 4.5 Goals46.0%

3-4 Goals36.1%

Under 3.5 Goals34.9%

1-3 Goals33.7%

Over 5.5 Goals29.0%

2-3 Goals28.5%

Under 2.5 Goals17.9%

Exactly 3 Goals17.1%

1-2 Goals16.6%

Exactly 2 Goals11.5%

Under 1.5 Goals6.4%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals1.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score89.4%

Home Team to Score89.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.4%

Away Clean Sheet10.9%

Home Clean Sheet10.5%

Away Win to Nil9.8%

Home Win to Nil9.4%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.589.4%

Home Over 0.589.0%

Away Over 1.565.7%

Home Over 1.564.8%

Away Over 2.539.0%

Away 3+ Goals39.0%

Home Over 2.538.0%

Home 3+ Goals38.0%

Home Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 124.2%

Away Exactly 123.7%

Home Exactly 010.9%

Away Exactly 010.5%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.0%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)76.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home76.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)60.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away60.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)39.5%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)23.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away23.6%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.3%

Away to win by 117.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.0%

Home to win by 117.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw12.0%

Away to win by 212.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw11.6%

Home to win by 211.6%

Away to win by 3+11.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.9%

Home to win by 3+10.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw3.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.573.9%

Away & Over 2.535.3%

Home & Over 2.534.2%

Away & BTTS31.1%

Home & BTTS30.2%

Draw & BTTS18.3%

Draw & Over 2.512.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.0%

Away & No BTTS9.8%

Home & No BTTS9.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.3%

Draw & Under 2.56.9%

BTTS & Under 2.55.7%

Away & Under 2.55.5%

Home & Under 2.55.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.6%

HT Over 1.559.6%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT Under 1.540.4%

HT Both Teams Score40.2%

HT Away Win35.0%

HT Home Win34.2%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.8%

HT/FT Away/Away25.6%

HT/FT Home/Home24.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.1%

HT Under 0.513.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Home3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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