Scotland · Premiership

Kilmarnock vs Celtic

Kick-off 13:30 · Sun, Aug 9

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

67% confidence

Kilmarnock 15.1% Draw 18.3% Celtic 66.5%

Over 2.5 - 69% BTTS - 78%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

94%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-2 at 7%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Celtic: 12 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Kilmarnock

L W W W W L

Form 4-0-2 Goals 16:7 Scored/game 2.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Celtic

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 15:6 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Kilmarnock 0wins ·0 draws ·Celtic 5wins

Kilmarnock 2-3 CelticFeb 15, 2026

Kilmarnock 0-4 CelticNov 9, 2025

Kilmarnock 1-2 CelticSep 14, 2025

Kilmarnock 1-5 CelticApr 12, 2025

Kilmarnock 0-2 CelticNov 10, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Kilmarnock win15.1%

Draw18.3%

Celtic win66.5%

Over 1.5 goals87.1%

Over 2.5 goals68.7%

Over 3.5 goals47.3%

Both teams to score77.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Team to Score

90.3%

Home Over 0.5

90.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

89.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)80.6%

Both Halves Over 0.580.2%

Goal in Both Halves80.2%

Home or Draw (1X)61.5%

Draw or Away (X2)57.6%

Draw No Bet - Home52.5%

Draw No Bet - Away47.5%

Home Win42.3%

Away Win38.3%

Draw19.2%

Exactly 1 Goal4.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals83.3%

Under 5.5 Goals69.2%

Over 3.5 Goals66.8%

4+ Goals66.8%

Under 4.5 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Total Goals Even49.9%

Over 4.5 Goals48.0%

2-4 Goals46.1%

3-4 Goals35.3%

Under 3.5 Goals33.2%

1-3 Goals32.0%

Over 5.5 Goals30.8%

2-3 Goals27.3%

Under 2.5 Goals16.7%

Exactly 3 Goals16.5%

1-2 Goals15.5%

Exactly 2 Goals10.8%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.2%

Exactly 0 Goals1.0%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score90.3%

Away Team to Score89.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)80.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)19.4%

Home Clean Sheet10.7%

Home Win to Nil9.7%

Away Clean Sheet9.6%

Away Win to Nil8.6%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.590.3%

Away Over 0.589.1%

Home Over 1.567.7%

Away Over 1.565.2%

Home Over 2.541.4%

Home 3+ Goals41.4%

Away Over 2.538.5%

Away 3+ Goals38.5%

Away Exactly 226.7%

Home Exactly 226.4%

Away Exactly 123.9%

Home Exactly 122.5%

Away Exactly 010.7%

Home Exactly 09.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.4%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away94.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)89.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home89.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)87.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away87.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)78.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home78.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)75.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away75.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home61.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)38.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)24.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home24.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)21.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away21.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.4%

Home to win by 117.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.6%

Away to win by 116.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)12.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home12.5%

Home to win by 3+12.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.4%

Home to win by 212.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.3%

Away to win by 211.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)10.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away10.5%

Away to win by 3+10.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw7.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw6.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)5.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home5.4%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw3.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw1.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.5%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.575.2%

Home & Over 2.537.1%

Away & Over 2.533.5%

Home & BTTS32.6%

Away & BTTS29.8%

Draw & BTTS18.2%

Draw & Over 2.512.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.2%

Home & No BTTS9.7%

Away & No BTTS8.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.2%

Draw & Under 2.56.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.4%

Home & Under 2.55.3%

Away & Under 2.54.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.587.2%

HT Over 1.560.9%

2nd Half More Goals48.8%

HT Both Teams Score41.3%

HT Under 1.539.1%

HT Home Win36.1%

HT Away Win33.6%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw30.3%

HT/FT Home/Home26.8%

HT/FT Away/Away23.9%

Equal Goals Each Half18.9%

HT Under 0.512.8%

HT/FT Draw/Home11.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away10.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away3.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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