Scotland · Premiership

Kilmarnock vs Motherwell

Kick-off 15:00 · Sat, Oct 17

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Kilmarnock 28.6% Draw 23.7% Motherwell 47.7%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 83%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

83%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 7.5%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.00 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Kilmarnock 1 wins, 1 draws, Motherwell 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.5%

Exact-score model probability

Kilmarnock

L L L W W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 14:12 Scored/game 2.33 Conceded/game 2

Motherwell

W D L W D D

Form 2-3-1 Goals 10:7 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Kilmarnock 1wins ·1 draws ·Motherwell 3wins

Kilmarnock 0-4 MotherwellJan 24, 2026

Kilmarnock 1-3 MotherwellNov 22, 2025

Kilmarnock 2-2 MotherwellAug 30, 2025

Kilmarnock 0-3 MotherwellMay 14, 2025

Kilmarnock 2-0 MotherwellApr 5, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Kilmarnock win28.6%

Draw23.7%

Motherwell win47.7%

Over 1.5 goals79.8%

Over 2.5 goals57.4%

Over 3.5 goals35.0%

Both teams to score83.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

91.9%

HT Over 0.5

86.8%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)83.7%

Draw or Away (X2)81.7%

Both Halves Over 0.579.5%

Goal in Both Halves79.5%

Draw No Bet - Away78.5%

Away Win65.7%

Home or Draw (1X)33.9%

Draw No Bet - Home21.5%

Home Win18.0%

Draw16.0%

Exactly 1 Goal5.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.5%

Over 1.5 Goals93.5%

Over 2.5 Goals82.3%

Under 5.5 Goals70.7%

Over 3.5 Goals65.4%

4+ Goals65.4%

Under 4.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

2-4 Goals47.1%

Over 4.5 Goals46.4%

3-4 Goals35.9%

Under 3.5 Goals34.6%

1-3 Goals33.1%

Over 5.5 Goals29.3%

2-3 Goals28.1%

Under 2.5 Goals17.7%

Exactly 3 Goals16.9%

1-2 Goals16.3%

Exactly 2 Goals11.3%

Under 1.5 Goals6.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.5%

Exactly 0 Goals1.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.4%

Home Team to Score78.6%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.6%

Away Clean Sheet21.1%

Away Win to Nil20.0%

Home Clean Sheet5.3%

Home Win to Nil4.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.4%

Away Over 1.578.9%

Home Over 0.578.6%

Away Over 2.556.1%

Away 3+ Goals56.1%

Home Over 1.545.8%

Home Exactly 132.8%

Home Exactly 225.4%

Away Exactly 222.8%

Home Exactly 021.1%

Home Over 2.520.4%

Home 3+ Goals20.4%

Away Exactly 115.5%

Away Exactly 05.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)96.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away96.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home92.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away91.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)84.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home84.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away81.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)71.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home71.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)65.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)53.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home53.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)46.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away46.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)33.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home33.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)28.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away28.5%

Away to win by 3+28.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw19.2%

Away to win by 119.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 218.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)15.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away15.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 110.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)7.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home7.8%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.0%

Home to win by 25.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.8%

Home to win by 3+2.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.2%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.569.3%

Away & Over 2.557.6%

Away & BTTS45.7%

Away & No BTTS20.0%

Home & Over 2.514.9%

Draw & BTTS14.9%

Home & BTTS13.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.512.3%

Draw & Over 2.59.8%

Away & Under 2.58.1%

Draw & Under 2.56.2%

BTTS & Under 2.55.1%

Home & No BTTS4.1%

Home & Under 2.53.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.586.8%

HT Over 1.560.1%

HT Away Win51.7%

2nd Half More Goals48.6%

HT/FT Away/Away45.3%

HT Under 1.539.9%

HT Both Teams Score36.9%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw28.6%

HT Home Win19.7%

Equal Goals Each Half19.0%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.9%

HT Under 0.513.2%

HT/FT Home/Home10.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw7.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.6%

HT/FT Home/Away4.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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