Scotland · Premiership

Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren

Kick-off 19:45 · Wed, Sep 2

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

46% confidence

Kilmarnock 45.6% Draw 25.9% ST Mirren 28.5%

Over 2.5 - 51% BTTS - 73%

🎯 Best Pick

Home Win

AI verdict (fallback)

⚠️ AIs disagree

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 8.8%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.33 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Kilmarnock 3 wins, 1 draws, ST Mirren 1 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.8%

Exact-score model probability

Kilmarnock

L L W W W W

Form 4-0-2 Goals 17:11 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 1.83

ST Mirren

D W W W D D

Form 3-3-0 Goals 9:5 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 0.83

Head to head · last 5

Kilmarnock 3wins ·1 draws ·ST Mirren 1wins

Kilmarnock 3-0 ST MirrenMay 9, 2026

Kilmarnock 4-3 ST MirrenFeb 11, 2026

Kilmarnock 0-0 ST MirrenDec 27, 2025

Kilmarnock 2-0 ST MirrenOct 4, 2025

Kilmarnock 1-5 ST MirrenMar 29, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

Kilmarnock win45.6%

Draw25.9%

ST Mirren win28.5%

Over 1.5 goals75.6%

Over 2.5 goals50.8%

Over 3.5 goals28.7%

Both teams to score72.9%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

89.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

87.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.2%

Both Halves Over 0.569.4%

Goal in Both Halves69.4%

Home or Draw (1X)63.9%

Draw or Away (X2)57.9%

Draw No Bet - Home53.9%

Draw No Bet - Away46.1%

Home Win42.1%

Away Win36.0%

Draw21.8%

Exactly 1 Goal9.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.3%

Over 1.5 Goals87.6%

Under 5.5 Goals84.2%

Under 4.5 Goals70.3%

Over 2.5 Goals70.0%

2-4 Goals57.9%

Under 3.5 Goals51.2%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Over 3.5 Goals48.8%

4+ Goals48.8%

1-3 Goals48.5%

3-4 Goals40.3%

2-3 Goals38.8%

Under 2.5 Goals30.0%

Over 4.5 Goals29.7%

1-2 Goals27.3%

Exactly 3 Goals21.2%

Exactly 2 Goals17.6%

Over 5.5 Goals15.8%

Under 1.5 Goals12.4%

Under 0.5 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals2.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score84.8%

Away Team to Score82.3%

Both Teams Score (GG)69.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)30.2%

Home Clean Sheet17.7%

Away Clean Sheet15.2%

Home Win to Nil15.0%

Away Win to Nil12.5%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.584.8%

Away Over 0.582.3%

Home Over 1.556.1%

Away Over 1.551.7%

Away Exactly 130.6%

Home Over 2.529.2%

Home 3+ Goals29.2%

Home Exactly 128.6%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Exactly 226.5%

Away Over 2.525.1%

Away 3+ Goals25.1%

Away Exactly 017.7%

Home Exactly 015.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)96.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away96.1%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.3%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.3%

Home to win by 119.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.7%

Away to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 212.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.7%

Away to win by 210.7%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.3%

Home to win by 3+10.3%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.6%

Away to win by 3+7.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)3.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home3.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.9%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.9%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.3%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.561.0%

Home & Over 2.532.3%

Away & Over 2.527.3%

Home & BTTS27.1%

Away & BTTS23.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.2%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Home & No BTTS15.0%

Away & No BTTS12.5%

Draw & Under 2.511.5%

Draw & Over 2.510.4%

Home & Under 2.59.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.0%

BTTS & Under 2.58.8%

Away & Under 2.58.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.580.4%

HT Under 1.551.6%

HT Over 1.548.4%

2nd Half More Goals46.5%

HT Draw34.9%

HT Home Win34.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Both Teams Score31.0%

HT Away Win30.6%

HT/FT Home/Home26.0%

HT/FT Away/Away21.8%

Equal Goals Each Half21.5%

HT Under 0.519.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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