UEFA Europa League

KuPS vs Universitatea Craiova

Full time · 1:1

📊 Our Prediction

Away Win

68% confidence

KuPS 14.0% Draw 18.0% Universitatea Craiova 68.0%

Over 2.5 - 73% BTTS - 64%

✗ Pick missed (1:1)

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

Strong form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 45%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

High xG

80%

Both Teams Score

BTTS rate

75%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

KuPS is in poor form, losing 3 of their last 4 matches, while Universitatea Craiova has a stronger record. The away team's high xG and recent performances suggest an attacking threat. KuPS's defensive struggles at home are a concern. With Universitatea Craiova's strong pi-rating and KuPS's poor form, the away win is likely.

💡

Top Tip

Universitatea Craiova to win

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-2 at 9.1%, based on the goal model.

Strong form

Recent form leans to Universitatea Craiova: 3 points versus 7 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.75 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away Win

Most likely score

1-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.1%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

45%

Market does not fully agree

KuPS

L L L W

Form 1-0-3 Goals 4:6 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Universitatea Craiova

D L W W

Form 2-1-1 Goals 7:4 Scored/game 1.75 Conceded/game 1

📈 Probability Breakdown

KuPS win14.0%

Draw18.0%

Universitatea Craiova win68.0%

Over 1.5 goals89.9%

Over 2.5 goals72.9%

Over 3.5 goals52.1%

Both teams to score64.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

88.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)

85.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home

85.7%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)85.3%

Home or Away (12)83.3%

Draw No Bet - Away82.6%

Both Halves Over 0.571.5%

Goal in Both Halves71.5%

Away Win68.8%

Home or Draw (1X)31.1%

Draw No Bet - Home17.4%

Draw16.6%

Home Win14.5%

Exactly 1 Goal8.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.5%

Over 1.5 Goals88.9%

Under 5.5 Goals82.1%

Over 2.5 Goals72.5%

Under 4.5 Goals67.4%

2-4 Goals56.3%

Over 3.5 Goals52.0%

4+ Goals52.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

Under 3.5 Goals48.0%

1-3 Goals45.6%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals36.9%

Over 4.5 Goals32.6%

Under 2.5 Goals27.5%

1-2 Goals25.0%

Exactly 3 Goals20.6%

Over 5.5 Goals17.9%

Exactly 2 Goals16.3%

Under 1.5 Goals11.1%

Under 0.5 Goals2.5%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score92.6%

Home Team to Score68.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)63.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)36.7%

Away Clean Sheet31.6%

Away Win to Nil29.3%

Home Clean Sheet7.2%

Home Win to Nil5.0%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.592.6%

Away Over 1.573.6%

Home Over 0.568.2%

Away Over 2.548.6%

Away 3+ Goals48.6%

Home Exactly 136.4%

Home Over 1.531.9%

Home Exactly 031.6%

Away Exactly 225.0%

Home Exactly 220.9%

Away Exactly 119.0%

Home Over 2.511.0%

Home 3+ Goals11.0%

Away Exactly 07.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.8%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away98.3%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)93.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home93.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)85.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away85.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)71.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home71.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)68.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)52.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home52.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)47.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away47.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)31.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home31.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)28.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away28.2%

Away to win by 3+28.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw21.0%

Away to win by 121.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw19.5%

Away to win by 219.5%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)14.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw14.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.2%

Home to win by 19.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)6.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away6.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home5.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw3.8%

Home to win by 23.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.6%

Home to win by 3+1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.556.4%

Away & Over 2.554.8%

Away & BTTS39.4%

Away & No BTTS29.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.520.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.2%

Draw & BTTS14.3%

Away & Under 2.513.9%

Home & Over 2.510.4%

Home & BTTS9.6%

Draw & Under 2.59.2%

Draw & Over 2.57.4%

BTTS & Under 2.56.9%

Home & No BTTS5.0%

Home & Under 2.54.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.7%

HT Away Win52.5%

HT Over 1.550.6%

HT Under 1.549.4%

HT/FT Away/Away47.1%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Draw31.3%

HT Both Teams Score28.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.0%

HT Under 0.518.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.8%

HT Home Win16.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.4%

HT/FT Home/Home8.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.1%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.1%

HT/FT Home/Away4.1%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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