Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

KV Mechelen vs Anderlecht

Kick-off 19:45 · Fri, Sep 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

38% confidence

KV Mechelen 35.0% Draw 26.5% Anderlecht 38.4%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 87%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

87%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 6.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Anderlecht: 3 points versus 15 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.17 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.6%

Exact-score model probability

KV Mechelen

D L L D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:15 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.5

Anderlecht

W W L W W W

Form 5-0-1 Goals 12:4 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 0.67

Head to head · last 5

KV Mechelen 1wins ·1 draws ·Anderlecht 3wins

KV Mechelen 2-2 AnderlechtMay 17, 2026

KV Mechelen 1-2 AnderlechtApr 18, 2026

KV Mechelen 1-0 AnderlechtMar 15, 2026

KV Mechelen 1-3 AnderlechtNov 1, 2025

KV Mechelen 1-4 AnderlechtJan 26, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

KV Mechelen win35.0%

Draw26.5%

Anderlecht win38.4%

Over 1.5 goals80.8%

Over 2.5 goals93.2%

Over 3.5 goals34.7%

Both teams to score86.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

91.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home

91.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.6%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)84.2%

Both Halves Over 0.584.2%

Goal in Both Halves84.2%

Draw or Away (X2)80.5%

Draw No Bet - Away77.6%

Away Win65.4%

Home or Draw (1X)34.0%

Draw No Bet - Home22.4%

Home Win18.8%

Draw15.1%

Exactly 1 Goal3.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.7%

Over 1.5 Goals95.5%

Over 2.5 Goals87.4%

Over 3.5 Goals73.7%

4+ Goals73.7%

Under 5.5 Goals61.2%

Over 4.5 Goals56.3%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals43.7%

2-4 Goals39.2%

Over 5.5 Goals38.8%

3-4 Goals31.1%

Under 3.5 Goals26.3%

1-3 Goals25.1%

2-3 Goals21.8%

Exactly 3 Goals13.7%

Under 2.5 Goals12.6%

1-2 Goals11.3%

Exactly 2 Goals8.1%

Under 1.5 Goals4.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.3%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score95.5%

Home Team to Score83.1%

Both Teams Score (GG)79.8%

No Both Teams Score (NG)20.2%

Away Clean Sheet16.3%

Away Win to Nil15.7%

Home Clean Sheet3.9%

Home Win to Nil3.2%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.595.5%

Home Over 0.583.1%

Away Over 1.582.9%

Away Over 2.562.4%

Away 3+ Goals62.4%

Home Over 1.553.6%

Home Exactly 129.5%

Home Over 2.527.0%

Home 3+ Goals27.0%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Away Exactly 220.5%

Home Exactly 016.3%

Away Exactly 112.6%

Away Exactly 03.9%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)91.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home91.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)82.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home82.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home69.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)65.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)52.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home52.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)47.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away47.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)34.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home34.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)30.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away30.1%

Away to win by 3+30.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.0%

Away to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.2%

Away to win by 217.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)16.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away16.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.0%

Home to win by 110.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)8.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home8.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)8.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away8.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.3%

Home to win by 25.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw4.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.5%

Home to win by 3+3.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away3.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.8%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.576.1%

Away & Over 2.560.0%

Away & BTTS49.7%

Home & Over 2.516.7%

Away & No BTTS15.7%

Home & BTTS15.6%

Draw & BTTS14.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.3%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Away & Under 2.55.4%

Draw & Under 2.54.4%

BTTS & Under 2.53.7%

Home & No BTTS3.2%

Home & Under 2.52.2%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.589.7%

HT Over 1.566.4%

HT Away Win52.5%

2nd Half More Goals49.8%

HT/FT Away/Away45.7%

HT Both Teams Score42.8%

HT Under 1.533.6%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.6%

HT Home Win20.9%

Equal Goals Each Half17.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.9%

HT/FT Home/Home11.1%

HT Under 0.510.3%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.5%

HT/FT Home/Away5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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