Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden

Kick-off 18:15 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

KV Mechelen 34.0% Draw 26.7% St. Truiden 39.3%

Over 2.5 - 98% BTTS - 93%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

80%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

73%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-3 at 5.6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to St. Truiden: 3 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.6%

Exact-score model probability

KV Mechelen

D L L D D L

Form 0-3-3 Goals 7:15 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.5

St. Truiden

W W D D W L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 13:8 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

KV Mechelen 0wins ·1 draws ·St. Truiden 4wins

KV Mechelen 0-3 St. TruidenMay 24, 2026

KV Mechelen 1-4 St. TruidenApr 26, 2026

KV Mechelen 0-1 St. TruidenDec 21, 2025

KV Mechelen 1-3 St. TruidenOct 4, 2025

KV Mechelen 1-1 St. TruidenFeb 21, 2025

📈 Probability Breakdown

KV Mechelen win34.0%

Draw26.7%

St. Truiden win39.3%

Over 1.5 goals80.4%

Over 2.5 goals97.7%

Over 3.5 goals34.1%

Both teams to score93.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 2.5 Goals

91.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

89.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

89.5%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.589.0%

Goal in Both Halves89.0%

Home or Away (12)84.9%

Draw or Away (X2)80.3%

Draw No Bet - Away78.5%

Away Win66.7%

Home or Draw (1X)31.8%

Draw No Bet - Home21.5%

Home Win18.2%

Draw13.6%

Exactly 1 Goal1.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.2%

Over 1.5 Goals96.5%

Over 2.5 Goals91.5%

Over 3.5 Goals81.9%

4+ Goals81.9%

Over 4.5 Goals67.8%

Over 5.5 Goals51.3%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Under 5.5 Goals48.7%

Under 4.5 Goals32.2%

2-4 Goals28.7%

3-4 Goals23.8%

Under 3.5 Goals18.1%

1-3 Goals16.3%

2-3 Goals14.6%

Exactly 3 Goals9.7%

Under 2.5 Goals8.5%

1-2 Goals6.7%

Exactly 2 Goals5.0%

Under 1.5 Goals3.5%

Under 0.5 Goals1.8%

Exactly 0 Goals0.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.1%

Home Team to Score86.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.7%

Away Clean Sheet12.1%

Away Win to Nil11.8%

Home Clean Sheet2.4%

Home Win to Nil2.1%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.1%

Away Over 1.587.3%

Home Over 0.586.4%

Away Over 2.570.7%

Away 3+ Goals70.7%

Home Over 1.561.0%

Home Over 2.534.4%

Home 3+ Goals34.4%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Exactly 125.4%

Away Exactly 216.6%

Home Exactly 012.1%

Away Exactly 18.9%

Away Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.1%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)89.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away89.5%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)88.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home88.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)80.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away80.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)78.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home78.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)66.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)64.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home64.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)50.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away50.2%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)48.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home48.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)33.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away33.7%

Away to win by 3+33.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)31.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home31.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)20.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away20.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)18.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw16.5%

Away to win by 116.5%

Away to win by 216.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw13.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)10.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away10.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw9.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw9.2%

Home to win by 19.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw5.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw5.2%

Home to win by 25.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away4.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)3.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home3.8%

Home to win by 3+3.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.582.0%

Away & Over 2.563.5%

Away & BTTS54.8%

Home & Over 2.517.0%

Home & BTTS16.1%

Draw & BTTS13.3%

Away & No BTTS11.8%

Draw & Over 2.511.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.54.7%

Away & Under 2.53.1%

Draw & Under 2.52.6%

BTTS & Under 2.52.3%

Home & No BTTS2.1%

Home & Under 2.51.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.592.8%

HT Over 1.573.8%

HT Away Win54.8%

2nd Half More Goals51.1%

HT Both Teams Score49.7%

HT/FT Away/Away48.1%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.526.2%

HT Draw24.2%

HT Home Win21.0%

Equal Goals Each Half16.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away14.1%

HT/FT Home/Home10.8%

HT Under 0.57.2%

HT/FT Home/Away5.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home5.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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