Belgium · Jupiler Pro League

KV Mechelen vs Standard Liege

Kick-off 17:30 · Sun, Aug 16

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

KV Mechelen 42.3% Draw 31.0% Standard Liege 26.7%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-3 at 10.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Standard Liege: 5 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.66 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.1%

Exact-score model probability

KV Mechelen

L L D D L W

Form 1-2-3 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Standard Liege

D L W D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 11:6 Scored/game 1.83 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

KV Mechelen 0wins ·4 draws ·Standard Liege 1wins

KV Mechelen 0-1 Standard LiegeNov 28, 2025

KV Mechelen 1-1 Standard LiegeSep 12, 2025

KV Mechelen 0-0 Standard LiegeMay 10, 2025

KV Mechelen 2-2 Standard LiegeMar 29, 2025

KV Mechelen 0-0 Standard LiegeDec 26, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

KV Mechelen win42.3%

Draw31.0%

Standard Liege win26.7%

Over 1.5 goals67.3%

Over 2.5 goals89.2%

Over 3.5 goals19.2%

Both teams to score61.1%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 1.5 Goals

89.1%

Home or Away (12)

88.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

87.8%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)92.9%

Draw No Bet - Away92.4%

Home or Away (12)88.0%

Away Win81.2%

Both Halves Over 0.572.1%

Goal in Both Halves72.1%

Home or Draw (1X)18.4%

Draw11.6%

Exactly 1 Goal8.3%

Draw No Bet - Home7.6%

Home Win6.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.4%

Over 1.5 Goals89.1%

Under 5.5 Goals81.6%

Over 2.5 Goals73.1%

Under 4.5 Goals66.7%

2-4 Goals55.8%

Over 3.5 Goals52.8%

4+ Goals52.8%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Total Goals Even49.8%

Under 3.5 Goals47.2%

1-3 Goals44.6%

3-4 Goals39.8%

2-3 Goals36.3%

Over 4.5 Goals33.3%

Under 2.5 Goals26.9%

1-2 Goals24.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.3%

Over 5.5 Goals18.4%

Exactly 2 Goals16.0%

Under 1.5 Goals10.9%

Under 0.5 Goals2.6%

Exactly 0 Goals2.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score94.8%

Home Team to Score54.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.9%

Away Clean Sheet44.8%

Away Win to Nil42.7%

Home Clean Sheet4.8%

Home Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.594.8%

Away Over 1.580.1%

Away Over 2.557.9%

Away 3+ Goals57.9%

Home Over 0.554.8%

Home Exactly 044.8%

Home Exactly 135.8%

Away Exactly 222.2%

Home Over 1.519.0%

Away Exactly 114.7%

Home Exactly 214.3%

Away Exactly 04.8%

Home Over 2.54.7%

Home 3+ Goals4.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.5%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.7%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)94.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)92.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away92.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)87.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home87.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)81.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)75.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home75.6%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)62.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away62.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)57.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home57.8%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)41.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away41.8%

Away to win by 3+41.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)36.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home36.9%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)24.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away24.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw20.9%

Away to win by 220.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.5%

Away to win by 118.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)18.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home18.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw17.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)11.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away11.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw6.8%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)6.7%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)5.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away5.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw4.9%

Home to win by 14.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home1.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw1.5%

Home to win by 21.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.4%

Home to win by 3+0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.564.7%

BTTS & Over 2.546.8%

Away & No BTTS42.7%

Away & BTTS38.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.526.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.521.2%

Away & Under 2.516.6%

Draw & BTTS9.4%

Draw & Under 2.57.4%

BTTS & Under 2.55.3%

Home & Over 2.54.3%

Draw & Over 2.54.2%

Home & BTTS4.1%

Home & No BTTS2.7%

Home & Under 2.52.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.582.1%

HT Away Win62.6%

HT/FT Away/Away59.4%

HT Over 1.551.3%

HT Under 1.548.7%

2nd Half More Goals47.1%

1st Half More Goals32.1%

HT Draw27.8%

HT Both Teams Score22.4%

Equal Goals Each Half20.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away18.8%

HT Under 0.517.9%

HT Home Win9.6%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.3%

HT/FT Home/Home3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away3.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home2.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home0.6%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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