UEFA Europa League

Larne vs Saburtalo

Kick-off 20:00 · Tue, Aug 4

📊 Our Prediction

Away Win

76% confidence

Larne 11.0% Draw 13.0% Saburtalo 76.0%

Over 2.5 - 89% BTTS - 76%

🎯 Best Pick

Away Win

Strong away form

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 42%

⚠️ AIs disagree

64%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Over 2.5 Goals

High xG values

82%

Both Teams Score (GG)

BTTS rate high

78%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Larne's recent form has been inconsistent, while Saburtalo has shown promise in attack. Saburtalo's xG of 3.75 indicates a significant attacking threat. Larne's defense has been leaky, conceding 2.5 goals per game. With Saburtalo's strong away record, they are likely to capitalize on Larne's defensive weaknesses.

💡

Top Tip

Saburtalo's attacking prowess makes Away Win a strong bet

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-3 at 6.9%, based on the goal model.

Strong away form

Recent form leans to Larne: 6 points versus 5 across the last 4 matches.

Numbers behind this Away Win

Most likely score

1-3

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

6.9%

Exact-score model probability

Bookmaker implied chance

42%

Market does not fully agree

Larne

L L W W

Form 2-0-2 Goals 3:10 Scored/game 0.75 Conceded/game 2.5

Saburtalo

D L D W

Form 1-2-1 Goals 6:7 Scored/game 1.5 Conceded/game 1.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Larne win11.0%

Draw13.0%

Saburtalo win76.0%

Over 1.5 goals97.1%

Over 2.5 goals89.2%

Over 3.5 goals76.6%

Both teams to score76.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

HT Over 0.5

90.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

88.1%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)87.7%

Draw No Bet - Away87.6%

Home or Away (12)87.1%

Both Halves Over 0.585.6%

Goal in Both Halves85.6%

Away Win76.3%

Home or Draw (1X)22.2%

Draw No Bet - Home12.4%

Draw11.4%

Home Win10.8%

Exactly 1 Goal2.7%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.0%

Over 1.5 Goals95.3%

Over 2.5 Goals88.1%

Over 3.5 Goals75.5%

4+ Goals75.5%

Over 4.5 Goals58.9%

Under 5.5 Goals58.5%

Total Goals Even49.3%

Total Goals Odd49.2%

Over 5.5 Goals41.5%

Under 4.5 Goals41.1%

2-4 Goals36.4%

3-4 Goals29.2%

Under 3.5 Goals24.5%

1-3 Goals22.5%

2-3 Goals19.8%

Exactly 3 Goals12.6%

Under 2.5 Goals11.9%

1-2 Goals9.9%

Exactly 2 Goals7.2%

Under 1.5 Goals4.7%

Under 0.5 Goals2.0%

Exactly 0 Goals0.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score96.2%

Home Team to Score76.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)74.9%

No Both Teams Score (NG)25.1%

Away Clean Sheet21.8%

Away Win to Nil21.3%

Home Clean Sheet2.4%

Home Win to Nil1.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.596.2%

Away Over 1.587.3%

Home Over 0.576.7%

Away Over 2.570.8%

Away 3+ Goals70.8%

Home Over 1.543.9%

Home Exactly 132.9%

Home Exactly 224.8%

Home Exactly 021.8%

Home Over 2.519.1%

Home 3+ Goals19.1%

Away Exactly 216.5%

Away Exactly 18.8%

Away Exactly 02.4%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)98.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.1%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away94.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)92.0%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)87.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away87.7%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)84.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home84.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)76.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)72.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home72.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)60.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away60.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)56.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home56.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)42.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away42.6%

Away to win by 3+42.6%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)38.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home38.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)26.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away26.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)22.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home22.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw17.8%

Away to win by 217.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw16.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw16.0%

Away to win by 116.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)14.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away14.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw12.1%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)10.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw7.8%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away6.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw6.4%

Home to win by 16.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)4.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home4.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.9%

Home to win by 22.9%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home1.5%

Home to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw1.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.572.0%

Away & Over 2.570.7%

Away & BTTS55.1%

Away & No BTTS21.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.1%

Draw & BTTS10.9%

Home & Over 2.59.4%

Home & BTTS8.9%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Away & Under 2.55.6%

Draw & Under 2.53.5%

BTTS & Under 2.52.9%

Home & No BTTS1.8%

Home & Under 2.51.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.6%

HT Over 1.568.4%

HT Away Win61.7%

HT/FT Away/Away57.0%

2nd Half More Goals50.1%

HT Both Teams Score40.2%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Under 1.531.6%

HT Draw23.6%

Equal Goals Each Half17.4%

HT/FT Draw/Away15.6%

HT Home Win14.7%

HT Under 0.59.4%

HT/FT Home/Home6.1%

HT/FT Home/Away5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw4.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.4%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.3%

HT/FT Away/Home1.3%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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