Italy · Serie A

Lazio vs Genoa

Kick-off 19:45 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

49% confidence

Lazio 48.7% Draw 28.1% Genoa 23.2%

Over 2.5 - 41% BTTS - 43%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

91%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 16%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lazio: 10 points versus 2 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles suggest a tighter game: the two sides combine for 1.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

16%

Exact-score model probability

Lazio

W W L L W D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 8:10 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.67

Genoa

L L L D D L

Form 0-2-4 Goals 1:7 Scored/game 0.17 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Lazio 5wins ·0 draws ·Genoa 0wins

Lazio 3-2 GenoaJan 30, 2026

Lazio 3-0 GenoaSep 29, 2025

Lazio 2-0 GenoaApr 23, 2025

Lazio 3-0 GenoaOct 27, 2024

Lazio 1-0 GenoaApr 19, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lazio win48.7%

Draw28.1%

Genoa win23.2%

Over 1.5 goals65.3%

Over 2.5 goals41.1%

Over 3.5 goals18.5%

Both teams to score42.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Over 0.5 Goals

90.8%

Under 4.5 Goals

90.6%

Home or Draw (1X)

86.7%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)86.7%

Draw No Bet - Home82.8%

Home or Away (12)77.2%

Home Win63.9%

Both Halves Over 0.548.1%

Goal in Both Halves48.1%

Draw or Away (X2)36.0%

Draw22.8%

Exactly 1 Goal22.0%

Draw No Bet - Away17.2%

Away Win13.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals96.5%

Over 0.5 Goals90.8%

Under 4.5 Goals90.6%

Under 3.5 Goals78.2%

1-3 Goals69.0%

Over 1.5 Goals68.8%

2-4 Goals59.4%

Under 2.5 Goals57.3%

Total Goals Even50.4%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

1-2 Goals48.1%

2-3 Goals47.0%

Over 2.5 Goals42.7%

3-4 Goals33.3%

Under 1.5 Goals31.2%

Exactly 2 Goals26.2%

Over 3.5 Goals21.8%

4+ Goals21.8%

Exactly 3 Goals20.8%

Over 4.5 Goals9.4%

Under 0.5 Goals9.2%

Exactly 0 Goals9.2%

Over 5.5 Goals3.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score82.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)60.9%

Home Clean Sheet52.6%

Away Team to Score47.4%

Home Win to Nil43.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)39.1%

Away Clean Sheet17.5%

Away Win to Nil8.3%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.582.5%

Away Exactly 052.6%

Home Over 1.552.0%

Away Over 0.547.4%

Away Exactly 133.8%

Home Exactly 130.5%

Home Exactly 226.6%

Home Over 2.525.4%

Home 3+ Goals25.4%

Home Exactly 017.5%

Away Over 1.513.6%

Away Exactly 210.9%

Away Over 2.52.8%

Away 3+ Goals2.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home100.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.5%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.6%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)93.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away93.6%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)86.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home86.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.9%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)63.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)62.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away62.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)37.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home37.1%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)36.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away36.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw26.9%

Home to win by 126.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw20.0%

Home to win by 220.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.1%

Home to win by 3+17.1%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw9.9%

Away to win by 19.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)6.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home6.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away3.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.7%

Away to win by 22.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.6%

Away to win by 3+0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.547.0%

Home & No BTTS43.4%

Home & Over 2.533.9%

Home & Under 2.530.0%

BTTS & Over 2.528.8%

Home & BTTS20.6%

Draw & Under 2.519.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.513.8%

Draw & BTTS13.6%

BTTS & Under 2.510.3%

Away & No BTTS8.3%

Away & Under 2.57.8%

Away & Over 2.55.4%

Away & BTTS5.0%

Draw & Over 2.53.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.570.9%

HT Over 0.565.8%

HT Home Win44.9%

HT Draw42.4%

2nd Half More Goals42.0%

HT/FT Home/Home40.6%

HT Under 0.534.2%

1st Half More Goals30.5%

HT Over 1.529.1%

Equal Goals Each Half27.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home21.1%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.6%

HT Both Teams Score13.7%

HT Away Win12.8%

HT/FT Away/Away6.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away5.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

HT/FT Home/Away0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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