Italy · Serie A

Lazio vs Monza

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

66% confidence

Lazio 66.0% Draw 20.6% Monza 13.4%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 92%

🎯 Best Pick

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

92%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

87%

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

76%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 6%, based on the goal model.

BTTS Poisson estimate

Recent form leans to Lazio: 16 points versus 7 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.34 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

Exact-score model probability

Lazio

W D W W W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 0.67

Monza

W L D L L W

Form 2-1-3 Goals 10:12 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 5

Lazio 3wins ·2 draws ·Monza 0wins

Lazio 5-1 MonzaFeb 9, 2025

Lazio 1-0 MonzaNov 10, 2024

Lazio 2-2 MonzaMay 4, 2024

Lazio 1-1 MonzaSep 23, 2023

Lazio 2-0 MonzaApr 2, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lazio win66.0%

Draw20.6%

Monza win13.4%

Over 1.5 goals75.9%

Over 2.5 goals95.6%

Over 3.5 goals29.5%

Both teams to score91.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

90.2%

Over 2.5 Goals

88.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

87.9%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.584.9%

Goal in Both Halves84.9%

Home or Away (12)83.4%

Home or Draw (1X)76.4%

Draw No Bet - Home72.3%

Home Win60.3%

Draw or Away (X2)39.2%

Draw No Bet - Away27.7%

Away Win23.1%

Draw16.1%

Exactly 1 Goal3.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.9%

Over 1.5 Goals95.9%

Over 2.5 Goals88.3%

Over 3.5 Goals75.2%

4+ Goals75.2%

Under 5.5 Goals59.3%

Over 4.5 Goals58.2%

Total Goals Odd49.7%

Total Goals Even49.7%

Under 4.5 Goals41.8%

Over 5.5 Goals40.7%

2-4 Goals37.7%

3-4 Goals30.1%

Under 3.5 Goals24.8%

1-3 Goals23.7%

2-3 Goals20.8%

Exactly 3 Goals13.1%

Under 2.5 Goals11.7%

1-2 Goals10.6%

Exactly 2 Goals7.6%

Under 1.5 Goals4.1%

Under 0.5 Goals1.1%

Exactly 0 Goals0.6%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.2%

Away Team to Score86.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)17.6%

Home Clean Sheet13.3%

Home Win to Nil12.7%

Away Clean Sheet4.3%

Away Win to Nil3.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.2%

Away Over 0.586.2%

Home Over 1.581.7%

Home Over 2.560.5%

Home 3+ Goals60.5%

Away Over 1.559.4%

Away Over 2.532.5%

Away 3+ Goals32.5%

Away Exactly 226.9%

Away Exactly 126.8%

Home Exactly 221.2%

Home Exactly 113.5%

Away Exactly 013.3%

Home Exactly 04.3%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.3%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.6%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away93.0%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)87.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home87.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)85.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away85.5%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.4%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)73.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away73.4%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)60.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)57.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away57.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)42.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home42.3%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)39.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away39.2%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home26.0%

Home to win by 3+26.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw18.0%

Home to win by 118.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw16.3%

Home to win by 216.3%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home14.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw12.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away11.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw11.5%

Away to win by 111.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw6.6%

Away to win by 26.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)6.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home6.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)4.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away4.9%

Away to win by 3+4.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw3.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home2.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.578.8%

Home & Over 2.555.6%

Home & BTTS47.6%

Away & Over 2.520.8%

Away & BTTS19.4%

Draw & BTTS15.5%

Home & No BTTS12.7%

Draw & Over 2.511.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.5%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.5%

Home & Under 2.54.6%

Draw & Under 2.54.2%

Away & No BTTS3.7%

BTTS & Under 2.53.6%

Away & Under 2.52.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.590.2%

HT Over 1.567.5%

2nd Half More Goals50.0%

HT Home Win49.0%

HT Both Teams Score45.1%

HT/FT Home/Home41.4%

HT Under 1.532.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw27.0%

HT Away Win24.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.1%

HT/FT Away/Away13.8%

HT Under 0.59.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away6.5%

HT/FT Draw/Draw6.4%

HT/FT Away/Home5.4%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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