Italy · Serie A

Lazio vs Parma

Kick-off 19:45 · Sat, Oct 24

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Lazio 58.5% Draw 26.8% Parma 14.7%

Over 2.5 - 76% BTTS - 40%

🎯 Best Pick

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

85%

No Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

60%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 2-0 at 10.3%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to Lazio: 16 points versus 4 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

2-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

10.3%

Exact-score model probability

Lazio

W W W D W W

Form 5-1-0 Goals 13:4 Scored/game 2.17 Conceded/game 0.67

Parma

L L W L D L

Form 1-1-4 Goals 5:12 Scored/game 0.83 Conceded/game 2

Head to head · last 4

Lazio 1wins ·2 draws ·Parma 1wins

Lazio 1-1 ParmaApr 4, 2026

Lazio 1-0 ParmaDec 13, 2025

Lazio 2-2 ParmaApr 28, 2025

Lazio 1-3 ParmaDec 1, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lazio win58.5%

Draw26.8%

Parma win14.7%

Over 1.5 goals60.7%

Over 2.5 goals75.8%

Over 3.5 goals15.1%

Both teams to score40.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

92.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

92.0%

Home or Draw (1X)

90.2%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)90.2%

Draw No Bet - Home88.7%

Home or Away (12)85.2%

Home Win75.6%

Both Halves Over 0.568.5%

Goal in Both Halves68.5%

Draw or Away (X2)24.2%

Draw14.6%

Draw No Bet - Away11.3%

Exactly 1 Goal10.2%

Away Win9.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.0%

Over 1.5 Goals86.8%

Under 5.5 Goals85.2%

Under 4.5 Goals71.7%

Over 2.5 Goals68.7%

2-4 Goals58.5%

Under 3.5 Goals52.7%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

1-3 Goals49.6%

Over 3.5 Goals47.3%

4+ Goals47.3%

3-4 Goals40.4%

2-3 Goals39.5%

Under 2.5 Goals31.3%

Over 4.5 Goals28.3%

1-2 Goals28.2%

Exactly 3 Goals21.4%

Exactly 2 Goals18.1%

Over 5.5 Goals14.8%

Under 1.5 Goals13.2%

Under 0.5 Goals3.0%

Exactly 0 Goals2.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score93.0%

Away Team to Score58.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)54.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)46.0%

Home Clean Sheet41.9%

Home Win to Nil39.0%

Away Clean Sheet6.8%

Away Win to Nil4.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.593.0%

Home Over 1.574.7%

Away Over 0.558.0%

Home Over 2.550.1%

Home 3+ Goals50.1%

Away Exactly 041.9%

Away Exactly 136.4%

Home Exactly 224.6%

Away Over 1.521.6%

Home Exactly 118.3%

Away Exactly 215.8%

Home Exactly 06.8%

Away Over 2.55.8%

Away 3+ Goals5.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.8%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.8%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home99.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)96.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home96.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)96.8%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)92.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away92.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)90.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home90.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)82.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away82.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)75.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)66.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away66.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)54.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home54.7%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)45.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away45.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)33.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home33.6%

Home to win by 3+33.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw21.1%

Home to win by 221.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw20.9%

Home to win by 120.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home17.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw16.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw9.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)7.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home7.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.8%

Away to win by 16.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw4.9%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)3.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home3.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw2.2%

Away to win by 22.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.7%

Away to win by 3+0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.557.6%

BTTS & Over 2.547.3%

Home & No BTTS39.0%

Home & BTTS36.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.524.4%

No BTTS & Over 2.521.4%

Home & Under 2.518.0%

Draw & BTTS11.7%

Draw & Under 2.59.5%

BTTS & Under 2.56.7%

Away & Over 2.56.1%

Away & BTTS5.7%

Draw & Over 2.55.1%

Away & No BTTS4.0%

Away & Under 2.53.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.579.8%

HT Home Win57.1%

HT/FT Home/Home53.0%

HT Under 1.552.5%

HT Over 1.547.5%

2nd Half More Goals46.3%

1st Half More Goals31.9%

HT Draw30.9%

HT Both Teams Score22.7%

Equal Goals Each Half21.8%

HT Under 0.520.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home19.2%

HT Away Win12.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw8.1%

HT/FT Away/Away5.2%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Away0.8%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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