Italy · Serie A

Lecce vs AS Roma

Kick-off 17:30 · Mon, Aug 31

📊 Our Prediction

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

59% confidence

Lecce 14.5% Draw 26.1% AS Roma 59.3%

Over 2.5 - 71% BTTS - 58%

🎯 Best Pick

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

83%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 0-2 at 12.7%, based on the goal model.

Double chance from Poisson

Recent form leans to AS Roma: 13 points versus 18 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.16 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Away +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

0-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

12.7%

Exact-score model probability

Lecce

W W W L W D

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:4 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.67

AS Roma

W W W W W W

Form 6-0-0 Goals 17:2 Scored/game 2.83 Conceded/game 0.33

Head to head · last 5

Lecce 0wins ·1 draws ·AS Roma 4wins

Lecce 0-1 AS RomaMar 22, 2026

Lecce 0-2 AS RomaJan 6, 2026

Lecce 0-1 AS RomaMar 29, 2025

Lecce 1-4 AS RomaDec 7, 2024

Lecce 0-0 AS RomaApr 1, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lecce win14.5%

Draw26.1%

AS Roma win59.3%

Over 1.5 goals62.8%

Over 2.5 goals71.0%

Over 3.5 goals16.6%

Both teams to score57.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

90.7%

Away Team to Score

90.5%

Away Over 0.5

90.5%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)90.3%

Draw No Bet - Away88.5%

Home or Away (12)83.5%

Away Win73.9%

Both Halves Over 0.561.4%

Goal in Both Halves61.4%

Home or Draw (1X)26.0%

Draw16.4%

Exactly 1 Goal14.1%

Draw No Bet - Home11.5%

Home Win9.6%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.4%

Under 5.5 Goals90.7%

Over 1.5 Goals81.3%

Under 4.5 Goals80.1%

Under 3.5 Goals62.8%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals59.6%

1-3 Goals58.1%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.1%

Under 2.5 Goals40.4%

3-4 Goals39.7%

Over 3.5 Goals37.2%

4+ Goals37.2%

1-2 Goals35.8%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals21.7%

Over 4.5 Goals19.9%

Under 1.5 Goals18.7%

Over 5.5 Goals9.3%

Under 0.5 Goals4.6%

Exactly 0 Goals4.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score90.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)53.4%

Home Team to Score51.5%

Away Clean Sheet48.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)46.6%

Away Win to Nil43.9%

Home Clean Sheet9.4%

Home Win to Nil4.8%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.590.5%

Away Over 1.568.4%

Home Over 0.551.5%

Home Exactly 048.4%

Away Over 2.542.1%

Away 3+ Goals42.1%

Home Exactly 135.1%

Away Exactly 226.3%

Away Exactly 122.2%

Home Over 1.516.4%

Home Exactly 212.7%

Away Exactly 09.4%

Home Over 2.53.7%

Home 3+ Goals3.7%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away99.4%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)97.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away97.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)94.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home94.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)90.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away90.3%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)85.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home85.9%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)73.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)70.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home70.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)50.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away50.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)49.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home49.0%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)29.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away29.2%

Away to win by 3+29.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)26.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home26.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.0%

Away to win by 123.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw21.8%

Away to win by 221.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw15.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)14.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away14.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)9.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw8.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw7.0%

Home to win by 17.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)5.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away5.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw3.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home2.6%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw2.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away2.0%

Home to win by 22.0%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home0.5%

Home to win by 3+0.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw0.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.1%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.0%

Combos (15)

Away & Over 2.550.5%

Away & No BTTS43.9%

BTTS & Over 2.538.9%

No BTTS & Under 2.532.5%

Away & BTTS30.0%

Away & Under 2.523.5%

No BTTS & Over 2.520.8%

Draw & Under 2.512.3%

Draw & BTTS11.8%

BTTS & Under 2.57.8%

Home & Over 2.55.1%

Home & BTTS4.8%

Home & No BTTS4.8%

Home & Under 2.54.5%

Draw & Over 2.54.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.575.1%

HT Under 1.559.5%

HT Away Win54.5%

HT/FT Away/Away50.6%

2nd Half More Goals44.9%

HT Over 1.540.5%

HT Draw34.3%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.524.9%

Equal Goals Each Half23.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away20.5%

HT Both Teams Score18.2%

HT Home Win11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.0%

HT/FT Home/Home5.1%

HT/FT Draw/Home3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away3.0%

HT/FT Away/Home0.7%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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