Italy · Serie A

Lecce vs Bologna

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Oct 11

📊 Our Prediction

Away +5.5 (Handicap)

48% confidence

Lecce 22.9% Draw 29.4% Bologna 47.7%

Over 2.5 - 57% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

77%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

61%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lecce: 9 points versus 3 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Lecce 0 wins, 2 draws, Bologna 3 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Away +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.7%

Exact-score model probability

Lecce

L W L L W W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 6:10 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.67

Bologna

D L D L L D

Form 0-3-3 Goals 6:9 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.5

Head to head · last 5

Lecce 0wins ·2 draws ·Bologna 3wins

Lecce 0-2 BolognaApr 12, 2026

Lecce 2-2 BolognaSep 28, 2025

Lecce 0-0 BolognaFeb 9, 2025

Lecce 0-1 BolognaNov 2, 2024

Lecce 0-4 BolognaFeb 11, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lecce win22.9%

Draw29.4%

Bologna win47.7%

Over 1.5 goals60.4%

Over 2.5 goals56.7%

Over 3.5 goals15.0%

Both teams to score60.7%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

90.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

90.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

88.6%

Match Result (11)

Draw or Away (X2)75.5%

Home or Away (12)75.3%

Draw No Bet - Away67.5%

Both Halves Over 0.554.0%

Goal in Both Halves54.0%

Away Win50.9%

Home or Draw (1X)49.1%

Draw No Bet - Home32.5%

Draw24.7%

Home Win24.5%

Exactly 1 Goal18.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals94.5%

Over 0.5 Goals93.1%

Under 4.5 Goals86.6%

Over 1.5 Goals74.8%

Under 3.5 Goals71.8%

1-3 Goals65.0%

2-4 Goals61.4%

Over 2.5 Goals50.2%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Under 2.5 Goals49.8%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

2-3 Goals46.6%

1-2 Goals43.0%

3-4 Goals36.7%

Over 3.5 Goals28.2%

4+ Goals28.2%

Under 1.5 Goals25.2%

Exactly 2 Goals24.6%

Exactly 3 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals13.4%

Under 0.5 Goals6.9%

Exactly 0 Goals6.8%

Over 5.5 Goals5.5%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score80.4%

Home Team to Score65.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)52.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)47.7%

Away Clean Sheet35.0%

Away Win to Nil28.1%

Home Clean Sheet19.6%

Home Win to Nil12.7%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.580.4%

Home Over 0.565.0%

Away Over 1.548.5%

Home Exactly 136.7%

Home Exactly 035.0%

Away Exactly 131.9%

Home Over 1.528.3%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Over 2.522.4%

Away 3+ Goals22.4%

Away Exactly 019.6%

Home Exactly 219.3%

Home Over 2.59.0%

Home 3+ Goals9.0%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Away +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.9%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away99.4%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home98.8%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)97.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away97.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home96.0%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)90.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away90.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)88.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home88.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)75.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away75.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)73.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home73.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)50.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)49.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home49.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)27.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away27.0%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)24.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw23.9%

Away to win by 123.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw15.5%

Away to win by 215.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw15.4%

Home to win by 115.4%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)11.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away11.4%

Away to win by 3+11.4%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)9.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home9.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw7.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw6.5%

Home to win by 26.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)4.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away4.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)2.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home2.6%

Home to win by 3+2.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw2.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)1.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away1.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw0.5%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.3%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.540.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.538.1%

Away & Over 2.530.6%

Away & No BTTS28.1%

Away & BTTS22.7%

Away & Under 2.520.3%

Draw & Under 2.518.6%

Draw & BTTS17.8%

Home & Over 2.513.5%

Home & No BTTS12.7%

Home & BTTS11.7%

BTTS & Under 2.511.7%

Home & Under 2.511.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.59.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.570.1%

HT Under 1.566.0%

2nd Half More Goals43.4%

HT Draw41.2%

HT Away Win37.6%

HT Over 1.534.0%

HT/FT Away/Away31.2%

1st Half More Goals31.0%

HT Under 0.529.9%

Equal Goals Each Half25.7%

HT Home Win21.2%

HT Both Teams Score19.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Draw15.0%

HT/FT Home/Home13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home9.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.8%

HT/FT Home/Away2.6%

HT/FT Away/Home1.5%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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