Italy · Serie A

Lecce vs Genoa

Kick-off 18:00 · Sun, Nov 1

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

36% confidence

Lecce 31.3% Draw 32.5% Genoa 36.3%

Over 2.5 - 48% BTTS - 50%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

88%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Draw or Away (X2)

Double chance from Poisson

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-0 at 15.4%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Genoa: 6 points versus 10 across the last 6 matches.

Head-to-head record: Lecce 1 wins, 2 draws, Genoa 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-0

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

15.4%

Exact-score model probability

Lecce

L L W L L W

Form 2-0-4 Goals 7:14 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 2.33

Genoa

W W L W L D

Form 3-1-2 Goals 7:6 Scored/game 1.17 Conceded/game 1

Head to head · last 5

Lecce 1wins ·2 draws ·Genoa 2wins

Lecce 1-0 GenoaMay 24, 2026

Lecce 0-0 GenoaAug 23, 2025

Lecce 1-2 GenoaMar 14, 2025

Lecce 0-0 GenoaJan 5, 2025

Lecce 1-2 GenoaJan 28, 2024

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lecce win31.3%

Draw32.5%

Genoa win36.3%

Over 1.5 goals55.2%

Over 2.5 goals47.8%

Over 3.5 goals11.6%

Both teams to score50.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

91.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away

91.6%

Over 0.5 Goals

88.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)76.7%

Home or Away (12)71.7%

Draw No Bet - Home67.6%

Draw or Away (X2)51.6%

Home Win48.4%

Both Halves Over 0.543.0%

Goal in Both Halves43.0%

Draw No Bet - Away32.4%

Draw28.3%

Exactly 1 Goal25.1%

Away Win23.3%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Under 5.5 Goals97.7%

Under 4.5 Goals93.3%

Over 0.5 Goals88.3%

Under 3.5 Goals82.9%

1-3 Goals71.3%

Under 2.5 Goals63.6%

Over 1.5 Goals63.3%

2-4 Goals56.6%

1-2 Goals52.0%

Total Goals Even50.7%

Total Goals Odd49.3%

2-3 Goals46.2%

Under 1.5 Goals36.7%

Over 2.5 Goals36.4%

3-4 Goals29.6%

Exactly 2 Goals26.9%

Exactly 3 Goals19.3%

Over 3.5 Goals17.1%

4+ Goals17.1%

Under 0.5 Goals11.7%

Exactly 0 Goals11.7%

Over 4.5 Goals6.7%

Over 5.5 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score73.4%

No Both Teams Score (NG)58.8%

Away Team to Score56.1%

Home Clean Sheet43.9%

Both Teams Score (GG)41.2%

Home Win to Nil32.2%

Away Clean Sheet26.6%

Away Win to Nil14.9%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.573.4%

Away Over 0.556.1%

Away Exactly 043.9%

Home Over 1.538.2%

Away Exactly 136.1%

Home Exactly 135.2%

Home Exactly 026.6%

Home Exactly 223.3%

Away Over 1.520.0%

Home Over 2.514.9%

Home 3+ Goals14.9%

Away Exactly 214.9%

Away Over 2.55.1%

Away 3+ Goals5.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.7%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home92.6%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)91.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away91.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)77.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away77.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home76.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)51.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away51.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)48.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw25.6%

Home to win by 125.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)23.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)22.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home22.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw15.9%

Away to win by 115.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw14.5%

Home to win by 214.5%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)8.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home8.4%

Home to win by 3+8.4%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.9%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.6%

Away to win by 25.6%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.7%

Away to win by 3+1.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

No BTTS & Under 2.550.9%

Home & No BTTS32.2%

BTTS & Over 2.528.5%

Home & Under 2.525.7%

Draw & Under 2.524.4%

Home & Over 2.522.7%

Draw & BTTS16.7%

Home & BTTS16.2%

Away & No BTTS14.9%

Away & Under 2.513.6%

BTTS & Under 2.512.7%

Away & Over 2.59.7%

Away & BTTS8.3%

No BTTS & Over 2.57.9%

Draw & Over 2.53.9%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Under 1.574.8%

HT Over 0.562.0%

HT Draw46.9%

2nd Half More Goals40.8%

HT Under 0.538.0%

HT Home Win34.2%

1st Half More Goals29.9%

Equal Goals Each Half29.3%

HT/FT Home/Home28.7%

HT Over 1.525.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw19.5%

HT Away Win18.9%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.8%

HT Both Teams Score13.9%

HT/FT Away/Away12.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away9.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.4%

HT/FT Away/Home1.9%

HT/FT Home/Away1.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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