Italy · Serie A

Lecce vs Monza

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 13

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

42% confidence

Lecce 41.6% Draw 30.1% Monza 28.3%

Over 2.5 - 68% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

85%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.7%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lecce: 9 points versus 8 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 2.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.7%

Exact-score model probability

Lecce

L L W W W L

Form 3-0-3 Goals 6:8 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 1.33

Monza

D L L W W D

Form 2-2-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Lecce 2wins ·3 draws ·Monza 0wins

Lecce 0-0 MonzaFeb 16, 2025

Lecce 2-1 MonzaDec 15, 2024

Lecce 1-1 MonzaApr 27, 2024

Lecce 1-1 MonzaSep 17, 2023

Lecce 1-0 MonzaMay 28, 2023

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lecce win41.6%

Draw30.1%

Monza win28.3%

Over 1.5 goals61.0%

Over 2.5 goals67.5%

Over 3.5 goals15.3%

Both teams to score68.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +1.5 (Handicap)

84.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away

84.3%

Under 4.5 Goals

84.1%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)75.0%

Draw or Away (X2)65.2%

Home or Draw (1X)59.8%

Both Halves Over 0.557.1%

Goal in Both Halves57.1%

Draw No Bet - Away53.5%

Draw No Bet - Home46.5%

Away Win40.2%

Home Win34.8%

Draw25.0%

Exactly 1 Goal16.5%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.2%

Under 5.5 Goals93.1%

Under 4.5 Goals84.1%

Over 1.5 Goals77.6%

Under 3.5 Goals68.2%

1-3 Goals62.4%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals54.1%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals45.9%

2-3 Goals45.8%

1-2 Goals40.1%

3-4 Goals38.2%

Over 3.5 Goals31.8%

4+ Goals31.8%

Exactly 2 Goals23.5%

Under 1.5 Goals22.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.9%

Over 5.5 Goals6.9%

Under 0.5 Goals5.8%

Exactly 0 Goals5.8%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Away Team to Score77.3%

Home Team to Score74.4%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.5%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.5%

Away Clean Sheet25.6%

Home Clean Sheet22.7%

Away Win to Nil19.8%

Home Win to Nil16.9%

Team Goals (14)

Away Over 0.577.3%

Home Over 0.574.4%

Away Over 1.543.6%

Home Over 1.539.5%

Home Exactly 134.9%

Away Exactly 133.7%

Home Exactly 025.6%

Away Exactly 224.9%

Home Exactly 223.8%

Away Exactly 022.7%

Away Over 2.518.6%

Away 3+ Goals18.6%

Home Over 2.515.8%

Home 3+ Goals15.8%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.4%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)98.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away98.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)94.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away94.4%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home92.6%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)84.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away84.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)80.6%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home80.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)65.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away65.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)59.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home59.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)40.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)34.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw20.8%

Away to win by 120.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away19.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.1%

Home to win by 119.1%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)15.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home15.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw11.9%

Away to win by 211.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw10.1%

Home to win by 210.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)7.4%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away7.4%

Away to win by 3+7.4%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)5.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home5.6%

Home to win by 3+5.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw4.0%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.3%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.7%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)1.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home1.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.2%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.5%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.7%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.2%

Away & Over 2.525.2%

Home & Over 2.521.5%

Away & BTTS20.4%

Away & No BTTS19.8%

Draw & BTTS19.2%

Home & BTTS17.9%

Draw & Under 2.517.6%

Home & No BTTS16.9%

Away & Under 2.515.0%

Home & Under 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.511.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.4%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.572.2%

HT Under 1.563.4%

2nd Half More Goals44.0%

HT Draw40.4%

HT Over 1.536.6%

HT Away Win31.5%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Home Win28.2%

HT Under 0.527.8%

Equal Goals Each Half24.8%

HT/FT Away/Away23.9%

HT Both Teams Score22.3%

HT/FT Home/Home20.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.5%

HT/FT Draw/Away13.7%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Away2.5%

HT/FT Away/Home2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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