UEFA Champions League

Lech Poznan vs Aarhus

Kick-off 18:00 · Wed, Jul 29

📊 Our Prediction

Over 2.5 Goals

90% confidence

Lech Poznan 85.0% Draw 10.0% Aarhus 5.0%

Over 2.5 - 90% BTTS - 61%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

High scoring

⚠️ Market disagrees - bookies say 43%

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

89%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home Win

Form gap

85%

Both Teams Score (GG)

Recent trends

60%

🤖 AI Match Analysis

Lech Poznan's strong form and Aarhus's poor recent results create a significant gap. Lech Poznan's attacking threat is high, with an average of 4 goals scored per game. Aarhus's defensive strength is a concern, having conceded 4 goals in their last match. The head-to-head significance also favors Lech Poznan, having won the previous match 4-1. 5 Goals is the strongest pick due to the high scoring potential of Lech Poznan.

💡

Top Tip

Over 2

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

Over 2.5 Goals is rated at 90.4% after combining both teams' recent goal output and defensive records.

High scoring

Numbers behind this Over 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 Goals probability

90.4%

Chance of 3+ total goals

Lech Poznan high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Aarhus high-scoring games

100%

Recent matches with 3+ goals

Bookmaker implied chance

43%

Market does not fully agree

Lech Poznan

Form 1-0-0 Goals 4:1 Scored/game 4 Conceded/game 1

Aarhus

Form 0-0-1 Goals 1:4 Scored/game 1 Conceded/game 4

Head to head · last 1

Lech Poznan 1wins ·0 draws ·Aarhus 0wins

Lech Poznan 4-1 AarhusJul 21, 2026

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lech Poznan win85.0%

Draw10.0%

Aarhus win5.0%

Over 1.5 goals97.5%

Over 2.5 goals90.4%

Over 3.5 goals79.0%

Both teams to score61.4%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

HT Over 0.5

91.6%

Home or Away (12)

90.3%

Home Over 1.5

89.9%

Match Result (11)

Draw No Bet - Home96.3%

Home or Draw (1X)92.6%

Home or Away (12)90.3%

Both Halves Over 0.587.1%

Goal in Both Halves87.1%

Home Win86.9%

Draw or Away (X2)9.0%

Draw5.7%

Draw No Bet - Away3.7%

Away Win3.3%

Exactly 1 Goal2.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.6%

Over 1.5 Goals93.3%

Over 2.5 Goals87.1%

Over 3.5 Goals75.8%

4+ Goals75.8%

Over 4.5 Goals60.2%

Under 5.5 Goals56.9%

Total Goals Even48.1%

Total Goals Odd47.9%

Over 5.5 Goals43.1%

Under 4.5 Goals39.8%

2-4 Goals33.1%

3-4 Goals26.9%

Under 3.5 Goals24.2%

1-3 Goals19.8%

2-3 Goals17.5%

Under 2.5 Goals12.9%

Exactly 3 Goals11.3%

1-2 Goals8.4%

Under 1.5 Goals6.7%

Exactly 2 Goals6.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.4%

Exactly 0 Goals0.4%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.9%

Away Team to Score60.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)60.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)40.0%

Home Clean Sheet35.3%

Home Win to Nil34.9%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil0.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.9%

Home Over 1.589.9%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 0.560.7%

Away Exactly 035.3%

Away Exactly 135.3%

Away Over 1.525.4%

Away Exactly 217.7%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Over 2.57.7%

Away 3+ Goals7.7%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)96.0%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)96.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home96.0%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home95.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)95.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home95.0%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)92.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home92.6%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)86.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)80.9%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)76.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home76.4%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)68.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away68.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)61.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home61.3%

Home to win by 3+61.3%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)51.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away51.9%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)44.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home44.0%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)34.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away34.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)27.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home27.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)19.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away19.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw17.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw16.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.1%

Home to win by 215.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home15.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw12.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw10.5%

Home to win by 110.5%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)9.0%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away9.0%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)3.3%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw2.3%

Away to win by 12.3%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw0.7%

Away to win by 20.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw0.2%

Away to win by 3+0.2%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.0%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

Home & Over 2.581.0%

BTTS & Over 2.558.1%

Home & BTTS52.0%

Home & No BTTS34.9%

No BTTS & Over 2.529.0%

No BTTS & Under 2.57.0%

Home & Under 2.56.0%

Draw & BTTS5.3%

Draw & Over 2.53.5%

Away & Over 2.52.7%

Away & BTTS2.6%

Draw & Under 2.52.2%

BTTS & Under 2.51.8%

Away & No BTTS0.7%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.591.6%

HT Home Win74.8%

HT/FT Home/Home72.8%

HT Over 1.570.7%

2nd Half More Goals50.5%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Both Teams Score31.4%

HT Under 1.529.3%

HT Draw18.0%

Equal Goals Each Half17.0%

HT/FT Draw/Home14.3%

HT Under 0.58.4%

HT Away Win7.1%

HT/FT Away/Home3.7%

HT/FT Draw/Draw2.5%

HT/FT Away/Away1.8%

HT/FT Away/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw1.6%

HT/FT Draw/Away1.1%

HT/FT Home/Away0.4%

🔎 API-Football Model

An independent statistical model, shown for comparison.

Lech Poznan win50%

Draw50%

Aarhus win0%

AdviceCombo Winner : Lech Poznan and +2.5 goals

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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