UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen

Kick-off 17:45 · Thu, Oct 15

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

74% confidence

Lech Poznan 74.0% Draw 11.7% Bayer Leverkusen 14.3%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 89%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 3.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

90%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

89%

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

88%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-2 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Lech Poznan: 13 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 5.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-2

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

Lech Poznan

D W W W L W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 19:6 Scored/game 3.17 Conceded/game 1

Bayer Leverkusen

W W D W L D

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:9 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.5

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lech Poznan win74.0%

Draw11.7%

Bayer Leverkusen win14.3%

Over 1.5 goals99.2%

Over 2.5 goals96.2%

Over 3.5 goals90.0%

Both teams to score88.5%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home Over 1.5

89.8%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

89.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

89.2%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.8%

Goal in Both Halves92.8%

Home or Away (12)85.0%

Draw No Bet - Home83.8%

Home or Draw (1X)82.1%

Home Win71.2%

Draw or Away (X2)24.8%

Draw No Bet - Away16.2%

Away Win13.8%

Draw10.9%

Exactly 1 Goal0.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals95.0%

Over 2.5 Goals92.3%

Over 3.5 Goals86.3%

4+ Goals86.3%

Over 4.5 Goals76.1%

Over 5.5 Goals62.4%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals37.6%

Under 4.5 Goals23.9%

2-4 Goals18.9%

3-4 Goals16.2%

Under 3.5 Goals13.7%

1-3 Goals9.5%

2-3 Goals8.7%

Under 2.5 Goals7.7%

Exactly 3 Goals6.0%

Under 1.5 Goals5.0%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals3.5%

Exactly 2 Goals2.7%

Exactly 0 Goals0.1%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score85.7%

Both Teams Score (GG)84.7%

No Both Teams Score (NG)15.3%

Home Clean Sheet10.2%

Home Win to Nil10.1%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.585.7%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.562.8%

Away Over 2.537.2%

Away 3+ Goals37.2%

Away Exactly 225.6%

Away Exactly 122.9%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Away Exactly 010.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.8%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)94.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home94.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.1%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.1%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)89.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home89.2%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)88.9%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)82.1%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home82.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)80.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away80.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)71.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)69.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away69.2%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.9%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)54.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away54.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)41.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home41.3%

Home to win by 3+41.3%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)39.0%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away39.0%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)26.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home26.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)24.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away24.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.6%

Home to win by 215.6%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)15.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home15.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw14.6%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw14.2%

Home to win by 114.2%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)13.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw11.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.1%

Away to win by 17.1%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home7.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)6.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away6.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.9%

Away to win by 23.9%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.8%

Away to win by 3+2.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.0%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.7%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.3%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.583.5%

Home & Over 2.569.4%

Home & BTTS61.1%

Away & Over 2.513.2%

Away & BTTS12.8%

Draw & BTTS10.8%

Home & No BTTS10.1%

Draw & Over 2.59.6%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.8%

No BTTS & Under 2.52.4%

Home & Under 2.51.7%

Draw & Under 2.51.3%

BTTS & Under 2.51.2%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.595.2%

HT Over 1.580.5%

HT Home Win60.9%

HT/FT Home/Home55.2%

HT Both Teams Score55.1%

2nd Half More Goals52.4%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Draw21.0%

HT Under 1.519.5%

HT Away Win18.1%

Equal Goals Each Half15.2%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.5%

HT/FT Away/Away8.1%

HT/FT Away/Home6.4%

HT Under 0.54.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.7%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away2.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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