UEFA Europa League

Lech Poznan vs FC Thun

Kick-off 18:00 · Thu, Aug 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

78% confidence

Lech Poznan 77.5% Draw 10.9% FC Thun 11.6%

Over 2.5 - 96% BTTS - 86%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

AI verdict (fallback)

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

95%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 4-1 at 5.1%, based on the goal model.

AI verdict (fallback)

Recent form leans to Lech Poznan: 9 points versus 4 across the last 4 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 4.50 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

4-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

5.1%

Exact-score model probability

Lech Poznan

W W L W

Form 3-0-1 Goals 10:4 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1

FC Thun

L W L D

Form 1-1-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.75

📈 Probability Breakdown

Lech Poznan win77.5%

Draw10.9%

FC Thun win11.6%

Over 1.5 goals99.0%

Over 2.5 goals95.5%

Over 3.5 goals88.3%

Both teams to score85.6%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Both Halves Over 0.5

92.0%

Goal in Both Halves

92.0%

Over 2.5 Goals

91.6%

Match Result (11)

Both Halves Over 0.592.0%

Goal in Both Halves92.0%

Draw No Bet - Home86.8%

Home or Away (12)85.8%

Home or Draw (1X)84.6%

Home Win74.5%

Draw or Away (X2)21.4%

Draw No Bet - Away13.2%

Away Win11.3%

Draw10.1%

Exactly 1 Goal1.0%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.8%

Over 1.5 Goals94.8%

Over 2.5 Goals91.6%

Over 3.5 Goals84.8%

4+ Goals84.8%

Over 4.5 Goals73.6%

Over 5.5 Goals59.0%

Total Goals Odd48.0%

Total Goals Even48.0%

Under 5.5 Goals41.0%

Under 4.5 Goals26.4%

2-4 Goals21.2%

3-4 Goals18.1%

Under 3.5 Goals15.2%

1-3 Goals11.0%

2-3 Goals10.1%

Under 2.5 Goals8.4%

Exactly 3 Goals6.9%

Under 1.5 Goals5.2%

Under 0.5 Goals4.2%

1-2 Goals4.2%

Exactly 2 Goals3.2%

Exactly 0 Goals0.2%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score94.8%

Away Team to Score83.0%

Both Teams Score (GG)82.0%

No Both Teams Score (NG)18.0%

Home Clean Sheet13.0%

Home Win to Nil12.8%

Away Clean Sheet1.1%

Away Win to Nil1.0%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.594.8%

Home Over 1.589.8%

Away Over 0.583.0%

Home Over 2.578.6%

Home 3+ Goals78.6%

Away Over 1.557.0%

Away Over 2.531.0%

Away 3+ Goals31.0%

Away Exactly 126.0%

Away Exactly 226.0%

Away Exactly 013.0%

Home Exactly 211.2%

Home Exactly 15.0%

Home Exactly 01.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)95.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)95.7%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home95.7%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)95.3%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home95.3%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)93.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home93.9%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)90.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home90.8%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)87.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)84.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home84.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)78.9%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away78.9%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)66.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away66.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)60.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home60.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)51.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away51.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)44.9%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home44.9%

Home to win by 3+44.9%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)35.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away35.2%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)29.6%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home29.6%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)21.4%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away21.4%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)17.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home17.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw15.8%

Home to win by 215.8%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw13.8%

Home to win by 113.8%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw12.6%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)11.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw8.8%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)8.2%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home8.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw6.1%

Away to win by 16.1%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)5.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away5.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.1%

Away to win by 23.1%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.3%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.7%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.2%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.580.6%

Home & Over 2.572.3%

Home & BTTS61.7%

Home & No BTTS12.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.511.0%

Away & Over 2.510.7%

Away & BTTS10.3%

Draw & BTTS10.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.6%

No BTTS & Under 2.53.0%

Home & Under 2.52.2%

Draw & Under 2.51.5%

BTTS & Under 2.51.4%

Away & No BTTS1.0%

Away & Under 2.50.6%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.594.6%

HT Over 1.578.9%

HT Home Win63.5%

HT/FT Home/Home58.5%

2nd Half More Goals52.0%

HT Both Teams Score51.5%

1st Half More Goals32.3%

HT Under 1.521.1%

HT Draw20.6%

HT Away Win15.9%

Equal Goals Each Half15.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT/FT Away/Away6.6%

HT/FT Away/Home6.1%

HT Under 0.55.4%

HT/FT Draw/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.3%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.1%

HT/FT Home/Away1.7%

Corners (12)

Home Over 4.5 Corners85.5%

Over 8.5 Corners83.4%

Home Most Corners75.2%

Over 9.5 Corners74.3%

Over 10.5 Corners63.5%

Over 11.5 Corners51.9%

Under 11.5 Corners48.1%

Away Over 4.5 Corners46.8%

Under 10.5 Corners36.5%

Under 9.5 Corners25.7%

Under 8.5 Corners16.6%

Away Most Corners16.4%

Cards (9)

Over 2.5 Cards88.9%

Over 3.5 Cards75.8%

Over 4.5 Cards58.8%

Under 5.5 Cards58.7%

Over 5.5 Cards41.3%

Under 4.5 Cards41.2%

Under 3.5 Cards24.2%

Over 0.5 Red Cards20.7%

Under 2.5 Cards11.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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