England · Premier League

Leeds vs Brentford

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Aug 30

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Leeds 38.7% Draw 28.2% Brentford 33.1%

Over 2.5 - 63% BTTS - 52%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

77%

▸ Show 1 alternative

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

72%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 9.9%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leeds: 13 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.83 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

9.9%

Exact-score model probability

Leeds

W W L W D W

Form 4-1-1 Goals 8:5 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 0.83

Brentford

W W D D L W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 15:7 Scored/game 2.5 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Leeds 1wins ·3 draws ·Brentford 1wins

Leeds 0-0 BrentfordMar 21, 2026

Leeds 1-1 BrentfordDec 14, 2025

Leeds 0-0 BrentfordJan 22, 2023

Leeds 2-5 BrentfordSep 3, 2022

Leeds 2-1 BrentfordMay 22, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Leeds win38.7%

Draw28.2%

Brentford win33.1%

Over 1.5 goals75.5%

Over 2.5 goals63.3%

Over 3.5 goals27.7%

Both teams to score52.0%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Under 5.5 Goals

91.1%

Home Team to Score

86.4%

Home Over 0.5

86.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)80.5%

Home or Away (12)78.7%

Draw No Bet - Home75.3%

Both Halves Over 0.560.8%

Goal in Both Halves60.8%

Home Win59.2%

Draw or Away (X2)40.7%

Draw No Bet - Away24.7%

Draw21.3%

Away Win19.4%

Exactly 1 Goal14.4%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals95.3%

Under 5.5 Goals91.1%

Over 1.5 Goals80.9%

Under 4.5 Goals80.6%

Under 3.5 Goals63.5%

2-4 Goals61.5%

Over 2.5 Goals58.9%

1-3 Goals58.8%

Total Goals Even50.1%

Total Goals Odd49.9%

2-3 Goals44.4%

Under 2.5 Goals41.1%

3-4 Goals39.5%

Over 3.5 Goals36.5%

4+ Goals36.5%

1-2 Goals36.4%

Exactly 3 Goals22.4%

Exactly 2 Goals22.0%

Over 4.5 Goals19.4%

Under 1.5 Goals19.1%

Over 5.5 Goals8.9%

Under 0.5 Goals4.7%

Exactly 0 Goals4.7%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score86.4%

Away Team to Score65.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)56.3%

No Both Teams Score (NG)43.7%

Home Clean Sheet34.8%

Home Win to Nil30.1%

Away Clean Sheet13.5%

Away Win to Nil8.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.586.4%

Away Over 0.565.2%

Home Over 1.559.4%

Away Exactly 136.7%

Away Exactly 034.8%

Home Over 2.532.3%

Home 3+ Goals32.3%

Away Over 1.528.4%

Home Exactly 127.1%

Home Exactly 227.1%

Away Exactly 219.4%

Home Exactly 013.5%

Away Over 2.59.1%

Away 3+ Goals9.1%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)100.0%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.9%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)99.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home99.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)98.0%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home98.0%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)97.5%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away97.5%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)93.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home93.0%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)92.7%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away92.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)82.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away82.4%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)80.5%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home80.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)64.3%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away64.3%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)59.2%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)40.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away40.7%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)35.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home35.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw23.5%

Home to win by 123.5%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)19.4%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.1%

Home to win by 218.1%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)17.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home17.6%

Home to win by 3+17.6%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw12.4%

Away to win by 112.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw10.4%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)7.2%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home7.2%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)7.0%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away7.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw5.0%

Away to win by 25.0%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw4.7%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)2.5%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home2.5%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)2.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away2.0%

Away to win by 3+2.0%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.8%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.5%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.7%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.7%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.4%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.546.4%

Home & Over 2.540.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.531.2%

Home & No BTTS30.1%

Home & BTTS29.1%

Home & Under 2.518.8%

Draw & BTTS16.6%

Draw & Under 2.514.7%

No BTTS & Over 2.512.5%

Away & Over 2.511.8%

Away & BTTS10.6%

BTTS & Under 2.59.9%

Away & No BTTS8.8%

Away & Under 2.57.6%

Draw & Over 2.56.7%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.574.7%

HT Under 1.560.1%

2nd Half More Goals44.8%

HT Home Win44.1%

HT Over 1.539.9%

HT/FT Home/Home38.1%

HT Draw37.3%

1st Half More Goals31.5%

HT Under 0.525.3%

Equal Goals Each Half23.8%

HT Both Teams Score22.4%

HT Away Win18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home17.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw12.1%

HT/FT Away/Away10.8%

HT/FT Draw/Away7.2%

HT/FT Away/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw4.6%

HT/FT Away/Home3.2%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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