England · Premier League

Leeds vs Crystal Palace

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Sep 20

📊 Our Prediction

Home +4.5 (Handicap)

47% confidence

Leeds 47.0% Draw 29.1% Crystal Palace 24.0%

Over 2.5 - 93% BTTS - 75%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 2.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

93%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Draw (1X)

Double chance from Poisson

76%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

75%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 3-1 at 7.6%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Leeds: 11 points versus 9 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.67 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +4.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

3-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

7.6%

Exact-score model probability

Leeds

W L D D W W

Form 3-2-1 Goals 12:9 Scored/game 2 Conceded/game 1.5

Crystal Palace

L W W L L W

Form 3-0-3 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Head to head · last 5

Leeds 1wins ·2 draws ·Crystal Palace 2wins

Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceMar 15, 2026

Leeds 4-1 Crystal PalaceDec 20, 2025

Leeds 1-5 Crystal PalaceApr 9, 2023

Leeds 1-2 Crystal PalaceOct 9, 2022

Leeds 0-0 Crystal PalaceApr 25, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Leeds win47.0%

Draw29.1%

Crystal Palace win24.0%

Over 1.5 goals72.7%

Over 2.5 goals93.1%

Over 3.5 goals24.2%

Both teams to score74.8%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Away +4.5 (Handicap)

88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away

88.1%

HT Over 0.5

88.0%

Match Result (11)

Home or Draw (1X)87.2%

Home or Away (12)86.2%

Draw No Bet - Home86.0%

Both Halves Over 0.581.4%

Goal in Both Halves81.4%

Home Win74.2%

Draw or Away (X2)25.1%

Draw No Bet - Away14.0%

Draw13.0%

Away Win12.0%

Exactly 1 Goal4.2%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals98.4%

Over 1.5 Goals94.1%

Over 2.5 Goals84.1%

Over 3.5 Goals68.5%

4+ Goals68.5%

Under 5.5 Goals67.4%

Over 4.5 Goals50.0%

Under 4.5 Goals50.0%

Total Goals Odd49.6%

Total Goals Even49.6%

2-4 Goals44.1%

3-4 Goals34.1%

Over 5.5 Goals32.6%

Under 3.5 Goals31.5%

1-3 Goals29.9%

2-3 Goals25.7%

Under 2.5 Goals15.9%

Exactly 3 Goals15.7%

1-2 Goals14.2%

Exactly 2 Goals10.0%

Under 1.5 Goals5.9%

Under 0.5 Goals1.6%

Exactly 0 Goals0.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score95.7%

Away Team to Score74.2%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.4%

Home Clean Sheet25.0%

Home Win to Nil24.1%

Away Clean Sheet3.6%

Away Win to Nil2.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.595.7%

Home Over 1.583.8%

Away Over 0.574.2%

Home Over 2.564.0%

Home 3+ Goals64.0%

Away Over 1.539.8%

Away Exactly 134.5%

Away Exactly 025.0%

Away Exactly 223.8%

Home Exactly 219.8%

Away Over 2.516.0%

Away 3+ Goals16.0%

Home Exactly 111.9%

Home Exactly 03.6%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.2%

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.2%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.8%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)97.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home97.7%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)94.5%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)94.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home94.5%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)88.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away88.1%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)87.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home87.2%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)77.2%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away77.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)74.2%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)61.5%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away61.5%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)56.5%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home56.5%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)42.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away42.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)37.8%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home37.8%

Home to win by 3+37.8%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)25.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away25.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)22.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home22.1%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw18.7%

Home to win by 218.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw17.7%

Home to win by 117.7%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw15.7%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)12.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)11.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home11.1%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw10.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw7.3%

Away to win by 17.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw6.4%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)4.8%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home4.8%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)4.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away4.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw3.2%

Away to win by 23.2%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away1.5%

Away to win by 3+1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw1.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw0.3%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.0%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.0%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.567.4%

Home & Over 2.566.2%

Home & BTTS50.1%

Home & No BTTS24.1%

No BTTS & Over 2.516.7%

Draw & BTTS12.1%

No BTTS & Under 2.511.0%

Away & Over 2.59.9%

Away & BTTS9.4%

Home & Under 2.58.0%

Draw & Over 2.58.0%

Draw & Under 2.55.0%

BTTS & Under 2.54.1%

Away & No BTTS2.7%

Away & Under 2.52.1%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.588.0%

HT Over 1.562.5%

HT Home Win58.7%

HT/FT Home/Home53.6%

2nd Half More Goals49.1%

HT Under 1.537.5%

HT Both Teams Score35.9%

1st Half More Goals32.4%

HT Draw26.0%

Equal Goals Each Half18.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home16.4%

HT Away Win15.3%

HT Under 0.512.0%

HT/FT Away/Away6.8%

HT/FT Draw/Draw5.8%

HT/FT Away/Home4.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away3.9%

HT/FT Away/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Draw3.6%

HT/FT Home/Away1.4%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

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