England · Premier League

Leeds vs Manchester United

Kick-off 14:00 · Sun, Oct 18

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

39% confidence

Leeds 39.2% Draw 29.0% Manchester United 31.8%

Over 2.5 - 72% BTTS - 69%

🎯 Best Pick

Over 1.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

75%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

69%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 8.2%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Head-to-head record: Leeds 1 wins, 2 draws, Manchester United 2 wins in the last 5 meetings.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

8.2%

Exact-score model probability

Leeds

L D W L D D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 10:11 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.83

Manchester United

L D D L W D

Form 1-3-2 Goals 8:7 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.17

Head to head · last 5

Leeds 1wins ·2 draws ·Manchester United 2wins

Leeds 2-1 Manchester UnitedApr 13, 2026

Leeds 1-1 Manchester UnitedJan 4, 2026

Leeds 0-2 Manchester UnitedFeb 12, 2023

Leeds 2-2 Manchester UnitedFeb 8, 2023

Leeds 2-4 Manchester UnitedFeb 20, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Leeds win39.2%

Draw29.0%

Manchester United win31.8%

Over 1.5 goals75.0%

Over 2.5 goals71.6%

Over 3.5 goals26.8%

Both teams to score69.2%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +2.5 (Handicap)

91.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home

91.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)

89.3%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)78.6%

Both Halves Over 0.571.2%

Goal in Both Halves71.2%

Home or Draw (1X)63.7%

Draw or Away (X2)57.7%

Draw No Bet - Home53.8%

Draw No Bet - Away46.2%

Home Win42.3%

Away Win36.3%

Draw21.4%

Exactly 1 Goal8.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals97.6%

Over 1.5 Goals88.8%

Under 5.5 Goals82.3%

Over 2.5 Goals72.3%

Under 4.5 Goals67.7%

2-4 Goals56.5%

Over 3.5 Goals51.7%

4+ Goals51.7%

Total Goals Odd50.0%

Total Goals Even50.0%

Under 3.5 Goals48.3%

1-3 Goals46.0%

3-4 Goals40.0%

2-3 Goals37.2%

Over 4.5 Goals32.3%

Under 2.5 Goals27.7%

1-2 Goals25.3%

Exactly 3 Goals20.7%

Over 5.5 Goals17.7%

Exactly 2 Goals16.5%

Under 1.5 Goals11.2%

Under 0.5 Goals2.4%

Exactly 0 Goals2.3%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score85.8%

Away Team to Score83.5%

Both Teams Score (GG)71.6%

No Both Teams Score (NG)28.4%

Home Clean Sheet16.5%

Away Clean Sheet14.2%

Home Win to Nil14.2%

Away Win to Nil11.8%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.585.8%

Away Over 0.583.5%

Home Over 1.558.1%

Away Over 1.553.7%

Home Over 2.531.0%

Home 3+ Goals31.0%

Away Exactly 129.7%

Home Exactly 127.7%

Home Exactly 227.0%

Away Over 2.526.9%

Away 3+ Goals26.9%

Away Exactly 226.8%

Away Exactly 016.5%

Home Exactly 014.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.7%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.6%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.1%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)98.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away98.6%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)97.1%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home97.1%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)95.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away95.9%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)91.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home91.9%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)89.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away89.3%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)81.2%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home81.2%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)76.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away76.7%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)63.7%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home63.7%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)57.7%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away57.7%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)42.3%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)36.3%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home23.3%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw19.0%

Home to win by 119.0%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)18.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away18.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw17.5%

Away to win by 117.5%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.6%

Home to win by 212.6%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)10.7%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw10.7%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home10.7%

Home to win by 3+10.7%

Away to win by 210.7%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)8.0%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away8.0%

Away to win by 3+8.0%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw6.6%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw5.1%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)4.1%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home4.1%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)2.9%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away2.9%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw2.8%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw2.0%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)1.3%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home1.3%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw1.0%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.9%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.9%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.6%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.4%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.2%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.2%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.563.4%

Home & Over 2.533.3%

Away & Over 2.528.3%

Home & BTTS28.1%

Away & BTTS24.4%

No BTTS & Under 2.519.4%

Draw & BTTS19.0%

Home & No BTTS14.2%

Away & No BTTS11.8%

Draw & Over 2.510.8%

Draw & Under 2.510.6%

Home & Under 2.59.0%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.9%

BTTS & Under 2.58.2%

Away & Under 2.58.0%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.581.5%

HT Over 1.550.3%

HT Under 1.549.7%

2nd Half More Goals46.9%

HT Home Win34.8%

HT Draw34.2%

HT Both Teams Score32.5%

1st Half More Goals32.0%

HT Away Win31.0%

HT/FT Home/Home26.2%

HT/FT Away/Away22.0%

Equal Goals Each Half21.1%

HT Under 0.518.5%

HT/FT Draw/Home12.7%

HT/FT Draw/Away11.2%

HT/FT Draw/Draw10.3%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.5%

HT/FT Away/Home3.5%

HT/FT Home/Away3.1%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions