England · Premier League

Leeds vs Newcastle

Kick-off 20:00 · Mon, Sep 14

📊 Our Prediction

Home +5.5 (Handicap)

37% confidence

Leeds 36.7% Draw 28.9% Newcastle 34.4%

Over 2.5 - 60% BTTS - 62%

🎯 Best Pick

Under 4.5 Goals

Goal-line projection

🤖🤖🤖 All 3 AIs agree

80%

▸ Show 2 alternatives

Home or Away (12)

Double chance from Poisson

71%

Both Teams Score

BTTS Poisson estimate

62%

🔎 Full match intelligenceForm · stats · H2H · team news

Why this pick was selected

The score forecast is led by 1-1 at 11.8%, based on the goal model.

Goal-line projection

Recent form leans to Newcastle: 8 points versus 11 across the last 6 matches.

Recent scoring profiles point to an open game: the two sides combine for 3.00 goals scored per match.

Numbers behind this Home +5.5 (Handicap)

Most likely score

1-1

Top Poisson scoreline

Scoreline probability

11.8%

Exact-score model probability

Leeds

L D D W W L

Form 2-2-2 Goals 8:11 Scored/game 1.33 Conceded/game 1.83

Newcastle

W D W W D L

Form 3-2-1 Goals 10:8 Scored/game 1.67 Conceded/game 1.33

Head to head · last 5

Leeds 0wins ·3 draws ·Newcastle 2wins

Leeds 3-4 NewcastleJan 7, 2026

Leeds 0-0 NewcastleAug 30, 2025

Leeds 2-2 NewcastleMay 13, 2023

Leeds 0-0 NewcastleDec 31, 2022

Leeds 0-1 NewcastleJan 22, 2022

📈 Probability Breakdown

Leeds win36.7%

Draw28.9%

Newcastle win34.4%

Over 1.5 goals76.3%

Over 2.5 goals59.6%

Over 3.5 goals28.2%

Both teams to score62.3%

🎯 Full Market Board

Our model's probability across every market, ranked most likely first.

Home +1.5 (Handicap)

84.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home

84.8%

Under 4.5 Goals

84.4%

Match Result (11)

Home or Away (12)74.9%

Home or Draw (1X)65.9%

Draw or Away (X2)59.2%

Both Halves Over 0.556.7%

Goal in Both Halves56.7%

Draw No Bet - Home54.5%

Draw No Bet - Away45.5%

Home Win40.8%

Away Win34.1%

Draw25.1%

Exactly 1 Goal16.8%

Goals Over/Under (23)

Over 0.5 Goals94.1%

Under 5.5 Goals93.3%

Under 4.5 Goals84.4%

Over 1.5 Goals77.3%

Under 3.5 Goals68.7%

1-3 Goals62.7%

2-4 Goals61.7%

Over 2.5 Goals53.6%

Total Goals Even50.2%

Total Goals Odd49.8%

Under 2.5 Goals46.4%

2-3 Goals46.0%

1-2 Goals40.4%

3-4 Goals38.0%

Over 3.5 Goals31.3%

4+ Goals31.3%

Exactly 2 Goals23.7%

Under 1.5 Goals22.7%

Exactly 3 Goals22.3%

Over 4.5 Goals15.6%

Over 5.5 Goals6.7%

Under 0.5 Goals5.9%

Exactly 0 Goals5.9%

BTTS & Defence (8)

Home Team to Score77.4%

Away Team to Score73.8%

Both Teams Score (GG)57.1%

No Both Teams Score (NG)42.9%

Home Clean Sheet26.2%

Away Clean Sheet22.6%

Home Win to Nil20.3%

Away Win to Nil16.7%

Team Goals (14)

Home Over 0.577.4%

Away Over 0.573.8%

Home Over 1.543.7%

Away Over 1.538.7%

Away Exactly 135.1%

Home Exactly 133.6%

Away Exactly 026.2%

Home Exactly 225.0%

Away Exactly 223.5%

Home Exactly 022.6%

Home Over 2.518.8%

Home 3+ Goals18.8%

Away Over 2.515.2%

Away 3+ Goals15.2%

Handicap & Margin (60)

Home +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Away +5.5 (Handicap)99.9%

Home +4.5 (Handicap)99.6%

European Handicap 5:0 - Home99.6%

Away +4.5 (Handicap)99.4%

European Handicap 0:5 - Away99.4%

Home +3.5 (Handicap)98.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Home98.5%

Away +3.5 (Handicap)97.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Away97.6%

Home +2.5 (Handicap)94.7%

European Handicap 3:0 - Home94.7%

Away +2.5 (Handicap)92.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Away92.4%

Home +1.5 (Handicap)84.8%

European Handicap 2:0 - Home84.8%

Away +1.5 (Handicap)80.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Away80.2%

Home +0.5 (Handicap)65.9%

European Handicap 1:0 - Home65.9%

Away +0.5 (Handicap)59.2%

European Handicap 0:1 - Away59.2%

Home -0.5 (Handicap)40.8%

Away -0.5 (Handicap)34.1%

European Handicap 0:1 - Draw21.0%

Home to win by 121.0%

Home -1.5 (Handicap)19.8%

European Handicap 0:1 - Home19.8%

European Handicap 1:0 - Draw18.9%

Away to win by 118.9%

Away -1.5 (Handicap)15.2%

European Handicap 1:0 - Away15.2%

European Handicap 0:2 - Draw12.1%

Home to win by 212.1%

European Handicap 2:0 - Draw9.8%

Away to win by 29.8%

Home -2.5 (Handicap)7.6%

European Handicap 0:2 - Home7.6%

Home to win by 3+7.6%

Away -2.5 (Handicap)5.3%

European Handicap 2:0 - Away5.3%

Away to win by 3+5.3%

European Handicap 0:3 - Draw5.2%

European Handicap 3:0 - Draw3.8%

Home -3.5 (Handicap)2.4%

European Handicap 0:3 - Home2.4%

European Handicap 0:4 - Draw1.8%

Away -3.5 (Handicap)1.5%

European Handicap 3:0 - Away1.5%

European Handicap 4:0 - Draw1.2%

Home -4.5 (Handicap)0.6%

European Handicap 0:4 - Home0.6%

European Handicap 0:5 - Draw0.5%

Away -4.5 (Handicap)0.4%

European Handicap 4:0 - Away0.4%

European Handicap 5:0 - Draw0.3%

Home -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

Away -5.5 (Handicap)0.1%

European Handicap 5:0 - Away0.1%

European Handicap 0:5 - Home0.1%

Combos (15)

BTTS & Over 2.545.3%

No BTTS & Under 2.534.6%

Home & Over 2.525.4%

Away & Over 2.520.9%

Home & BTTS20.5%

Home & No BTTS20.3%

Draw & BTTS19.1%

Draw & Under 2.517.7%

Away & BTTS17.4%

Away & No BTTS16.7%

Home & Under 2.515.4%

Away & Under 2.513.3%

BTTS & Under 2.511.8%

No BTTS & Over 2.58.4%

Draw & Over 2.57.3%

Half-Time & HT/FT (20)

HT Over 0.571.9%

HT Under 1.563.7%

2nd Half More Goals43.9%

HT Draw40.5%

HT Over 1.536.3%

HT Home Win31.8%

1st Half More Goals31.2%

HT Under 0.528.1%

HT Away Win27.7%

Equal Goals Each Half24.9%

HT/FT Home/Home24.4%

HT Both Teams Score22.1%

HT/FT Away/Away19.9%

HT/FT Draw/Draw14.6%

HT/FT Draw/Home13.9%

HT/FT Draw/Away12.0%

HT/FT Away/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Home/Draw5.3%

HT/FT Away/Home2.5%

HT/FT Home/Away2.2%

How we predict: Probabilities come from a Poisson goal-expectation model fed by recent form, attack/defence ratings and home advantage. The AI summary is generated from the same numerical inputs and recent context.

← All predictions